MEDIARELEASE

(March 11, 2013)

FROM:

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes President Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE:

Pulse Asias February 2013 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections from the February 2013 Pre-Election national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information. The survey fieldwork was conducted from February 24 to 28, 2013 using faceto-face interviews. Among the developments that preoccupied Filipinos during the month of February 2013 are the: (1) conduct of mock elections in various parts of the country, start of the official campaign period for the May 2013 elections and the United Nationalist Alliances (UNA) decision to drop Senators Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero as well as former Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB) Chairperson Grace Poe from its senatorial slate; (2) standoff in Sabah between members of the Royal Army of the Sultanate of Sulu and Malaysian security forces; (3) clashes between the Abu Sayyaf and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in Jolo Island; (4) release of the National Bureau of Investigations (NBI) report on the Atimonan incident which linked the killing of 13 individuals by police officers to a turf war over jueteng operations in Southern Luzon; (5) salvage operations to extract the USS Guardian from the Tubbataha Reef in Palawan and the pledge made by the American government to compensate the Philippines for the damage to the reef as a result of the

grounding of its warship in the area; (6) continued importation of used cars in Port Irene, Cagayan despite the Supreme Courts affirmation of the ban on vehicle importation; (7) commemoration of the 27th anniversary of the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution and the Presidents signing of the Human Rights Victims Reparation and Recognition Act of 2013; (8) indefinite extension of the suspension of the anti-cybercrime law; (9) report by the Commission on Audit (COA) regarding the alleged channeling to a bogus nongovernment organization of the Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Ramon Revilla, Jr.; (10) resignation of Pope Benedict XVI and (11) announcement of a 6.6% growth in the countrys gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 , the 3.0% headline inflation rate in January 2013, lower electricity rates in February 2013 for customers of the Manila Electric Company (MERALCO), continued record-breaking performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) and failure of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) to meet its 2012 collection target by P 8 billion. Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old and above, Pulse Asias nationwide survey has a 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: 7% for Metro Manila, 3% for the rest of Luzon and 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.) Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort. For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Pulse Asias February 2013 Pre-Election Survey: Media Release on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections 11 March 2013 Three re-electionists share the lead in the May 2013 senatorial race Senator Loren Legarda (56.7%), Senator Francis Escudero (54.9%) and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (52.8%); about four in ten Filipinos (42%) already have a complete slate for the electoral exercise If the May 2013 senatorial elections were held during the survey period, 15 of the 33 candidates for senator would have a statistical chance of winning. Of the 15, nine are running under Team PNoy or the coalition led by the Liberal Party (LP) while six are part of the senatorial slate of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).1 In addition, with the exception of three candidates, all of the probable winners are either former or incumbent members of either the Senate or the House of Representatives. (Please refer to Table 1.) Sharing 1st to 3rd places are three re-electionists Senator Loren Legarda (56.7%), Senator Francis Escudero (54.9%) and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (52.8%). Meanwhile, four candidates land in 4th to 9th places former Las Pias Representative Cynthia Villar (44.0%), San Juan City Representative JV Ejercito Estrada (43.8%), former National Youth Commission (NYC) Chairperson Paolo Benigno Aquino IV (43.2%) and UNA Deputy Secretary-General Nancy Binay (42.5%). Close behind are former Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB) Chairperson Grace Poe (42.1%) who is in 4th to 10th places and Senator Aquilino Pimentel III (40.1%) who lands in 4th to 12th places. Completing the list of probable winners are Senator Gregorio Honasan (37.9%, 8th to 13th places), Cagayan Province Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (36.6%, 9th to 15th places), Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (36.1%, 9th to 15th places), Aurora Province Representative Juan Edgardo Angara (35.1%, 10th to 15th places), former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (33.2%, 11th to 16th places) and former Senator Richard Gordon (32.2%, 11th to 16th places). Nonetheless, while the highest statistical ranking of these six candidates put them within the winners circle (8th to 11th places), some of them might end up not making it to the Senate given their lowest statistical ranking (13th to 16th places).
21 February 2013, a few days before the start of the fieldwork for this survey, the UNA announced that it is dropping Senators Legarda and Escudero as well as former MTRCB Chairperson Poe from its senatorial slate. As such, these three candidates are no longer considered as guest candidates of the UNA and are therefore counted solely as part of Team PNoy.
1On

Meanwhile, 5.5% of Filipinos are not inclined to support any of the 33 senatorial candidates for the coming midterm elections and 2.6% of the ballots were considered invalid.2 Between January and February 2013, two senatorial candidates enjoy significant gains in electoral support. These are former MTRCB Chairperson Poe (+11.2 percentage points) and former NYC Chairperson Aquino (+11.8 percentage points). Consequently, the statistical ranking of the ex-MTRCB Chairperson improves from 13thto 16th places in January 2013 to 4th to 10th places in February 2013. In the case of the former NYC Chairperson, his statistical ranking goes up from 13thto 15th places in January 2013 to 4th to 9th places the following month. The other probable senatorial candidates experience marginal movements in their respective overall voter preferences. (Please refer to Table 2.) With less than three months to go before the May 2013 elections, 42% of Filipinos are already naming 12 preferred candidates for the Senate the maximum number of seats up for grabs in the elections. As of February 2013, at least half of those in the Cordillera Autonomous Region (50%), Region 4-B (50%), Region 10 (50%), Region 12 (51%) and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (51%) have a complete senatorial slate while less than two in ten residents of Region 5 (19%) are naming 12 favored senatorial candidates. In addition, Filipinos are naming an average of eight preferred senatorial candidates and a median of 10 (out of a maximum of 12). Across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings, mean figures range from seven in Region 5 to 10 in Region 10 while median figures vary from six in Region 5 to 12 in Regions 3, 4-B, 10 and 12 as well as the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). (Please refer to Tables 3 and 4.)

For the senatorial race, a ballot is considered invalid if at least thirteen names in the list of senatorial candidates are shaded, contained erasures or one or more of the fully-shaded ovals has an X or line mark written over it.

Table 1 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 24 - 28, 2013 / Philippines (Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

Aware
LEGARDA, LOREN (NPC) ESCUDERO, CHIZ CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (NP) VILLAR,CYNTHIA HANEPBUHAY (NP) EJERCITO ESTRADA, JV (UNA) AQUINO, BENIGNO BAM (LP) BINAY, NANCY (UNA) POE, GRACE PIMENTEL, KOKO (PDP) HONASAN, GRINGO (UNA) ENRILE, JUAN PONCE JR.(NPC) TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV (NP) ANGARA, EDGARDO (LDP) ZUBIRI, MIGZ (UNA) GORDON, DICK (UNA) MADRIGAL, JAMBY (LP) MAGSAYSAY, RAMON JR. (LP) HONTIVEROS, RISA (AKBAYAN) MACEDA, MANONG ERNIE (UNA) MAGSAYSAY, MITOS (UNA) COJUANGCO, TINGTING (UNA) HAGEDORN, ED VILLANUEVA, BRO.EDDIE (BP) CASIO, TEDDY (MKB) DELOS REYES,JC (KPTRAN) MONTAO, MON ALCANTARA, SAMSON (SJS) BELGICA, GRECO (DPP) DAVID, LITO (KPTRAN) FALCONE, BAL (DPP) PENSON, RICARDO SEERES, CHRISTIAN (DPP) LLASOS, MARWIL (KPTRAN) NONE / REFUSED / DON'T KNOW INVALID VOTES 98 96 94 96 96 89 92 92 93 95 93 91 92 93 91 93 85 79 86 69 75 64 87 50 22 20 16 11 15 13 12 13 9 -----

Voting For
56.7 54.9 52.8 44.0 43.8 43.2 42.5 42.1 40.1 37.9 36.6 36.1 35.1 33.2 32.2 30.6 27.0 24.1 16.3 14.5 14.4 13.3 12.7 7.7 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.6 5.5 2.6

Rank
1-3 1-3 1-3 4-9 4-9 4-9 4-9 4-10 4-12 8-13 9-15 9-15 10-15 11-16 11-16 14-17 16-18 17-18 19-22 19-23 19-23 19-23 20-23 24 25-29 25-31 25-32 25-32 25-33 26-33 26-33 27-33 29-33 -----

Note: Based on COMELEC Sample Ballot and list of candidates as of 31 January 2013. Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2013 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang MGA SENADOR? Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Pakibasa po ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakilagay na lang po sa loob ng envelope at ibigay sa akin ang envelope. Q7. May nabasa, narinig o napanood na ba kayo na kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan o wala pa?

LEGEND: - LP-LED COALITION - UNA COALITION - MAKABAYAN - SOCIAL JUSTICE SOCIETY - ANG KAPATIRAN PARTY
- DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE PHILIPPINES

- BANGON PILIPINAS

Table 2 COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

January and February 2013 / Philippines (Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed) Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%) Jan Feb 13 13
[33] [33]

Change Feb13 Jan13 + + + + 1.3 0.7 3.9 4.9 0.3

Rank
Jan 13 Feb 13

# of names included

LEGARDA, LOREN (NPC) ESCUDERO, CHIZ CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (NP) VILLAR, CYNTHIA HANEPBUHAY (NP) EJERCITO ESTRADA, JV (UNA) AQUINO, BENIGNO BAM (LP) BINAY, NANCY (UNA) POE, GRACE PIMENTEL, KOKO (PDP) HONASAN, GRINGO (UNA) ENRILE, JUAN PONCE JR.(NPC) TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV (NP) ANGARA, EDGARDO (LDP) ZUBIRI, MIGZ (UNA) GORDON, DICK (UNA) MADRIGAL, JAMBY (LP) MAGSAYSAY, RAMON JR. (LP) HONTIVEROS, RISA (AKBAYAN) MACEDA, MANONG ERNIE (UNA) MAGSAYSAY, MITOS (UNA) COJUANGCO, TINGTING (UNA) HAGEDORN, ED VILLANUEVA, BRO.EDDIE (BP) CASIO, TEDDY (MKB) DELOS REYES,JC (KPTRAN) MONTAO, MON ALCANTARA, SAMSON (SJS) BELGICA, GRECO (DPP) DAVID, LITO (KPTRAN) FALCONE, BAL (DPP) PENSON, RICARDO SEERES, CHRISTIAN (DPP) LLASOS, MARWIL (KPTRAN)

58.0 54.2 48.9 39.1 43.5 31.4 43.6 30.9 40.7 36.8 40.4 41.1 37.0 37.5 30.0 26.8 23.8 17.5 15.5 9.9 11.8 9.3 9.2 5.7 2.8 3.6 3.8 0.8 3.6 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.5

56.7 54.9 52.8 44.0 43.8 43.2 42.5 42.1 40.1 37.9 36.6 36.1 35.1 33.2 32.2 30.6 27.0 24.1 16.3 14.5 14.4 13.3 12.7 7.7 4.2 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.6

1-2 1-2 3 4-12 4-9 13-15 4-9 13-16 4-12 6-12 4-12 4-12 6-12 6-12 13-16 14-17 16-17 18-19 18-19 20-23 20-23 20-23 20-23 24-25 25-28 25-28 24-28 29-33 25-28 29-33 29-33 29-33 29-33

1-3 1-3 1-3 4-9 4-9 4-9 4-9 4-10 4-12 8-13 9-15 9-15 10-15 11-16 11-16 14-17 16-18 17-18 19-22 19-23 19-23 19-23 20-23 24 25-29 25-31 25-32 25-32 25-33 26-33 26-33 27-33 29-33

+11.8 - 1.1 +11.2 - 0.6 + 1.1 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 3.8 5.0 1.9 4.3 2.2 3.8 3.2 6.6 0.8 4.6 2.6 4.0 3.5 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 2.4 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.1

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

February 24 - 28, 2013 / Philippines

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Northern/Central Luzon CAR Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Southern Luzon Region 4A Region 4B Region 5 Visayas Western Visayas Central Visayas Eastern Visayas Mindanao Western Mindanao Region 9 Region 12 ARMM Northern Mindanao Region 10 Region 13 / CARAGA Southern Mindanao Region 11

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (12%) (44%) (22%) (1%) (6%) (4%) (11%) (22%) (14%) (2%) (6%) (21%) (8%) (8%) (5%) (23%) (11%) (4%) (4%) (3%) (7%) (5%) (2%) (5%) (5%)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

Mean Median

8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 9

10 11 9 11 10 10 10 12 9 10 12 6 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 12 12 11 12 7 11 11

Table 4 2013 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

February 24 - 28, 2013 / Philippines

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Northern/Central Luzon CAR Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Southern Luzon Region 4A Region 4B Region 5 Visayas Western Visayas Central Visayas Eastern Visayas Mindanao Western Mindanao Region 9 Region 12 ARMM Northern Mindanao Region 10 Region 13 / CARAGA Southern Mindanao Region 11

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (12%) (44%) (22%) (1%) (6%) (4%) (11%) (22%) (14%) (2%) (6%) (21%) (8%) (8%) (5%) (23%) (11%) (4%) (4%) (3%) (7%) (5%) (2%) (5%) (5%)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

0
6 5 8 6 7 2 6 8 9 13 5 3 4 3 6 3 3 3 7 2 0 1 1 2 4 4

1
4 3 3 4 3 4 7 4 2 1 0 6 6 4 12 0 3 5 6 3 6 1 0 4 1 1

2
2 1 3 2 3 0 7 2 4 3 0 6 2 4 0 1 2 3 3 3 2 0 1 0 4 4

3
5 2 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 2 5 10 8 10 6 7 6 5 4 8 2 7 5 12 6 6

4
4 2 5 4 10 9 1 2 6 5 5 8 4 6 1 3 3 4 6 5 2 0 1 0 2 2

5
4 6 5 5 3 4 5 5 5 2 5 12 2 2 1 3 4 3 1 4 4 5 4 8 4 4

6
6 8 6 5 10 8 9 3 6 6 5 7 6 8 3 9 8 5 1 7 6 10 9 14 10 10

7
6 6 5 3 3 4 3 3 6 5 10 6 8 4 12 7 7 7 7 3 15 5 2 12 8 8

8
5 4 6 6 7 9 0 6 6 4 0 13 3 3 2 4 4 4 7 4 2 2 1 4 4 4

9
5 4 5 4 0 2 4 6 6 8 0 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 9 2 2 5 5 4 2 2

10
5 5 5 4 0 6 6 4 5 5 10 2 8 9 8 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 1 1

11
4 4 4 4 0 8 5 2 4 4 0 5 3 6 1 2 4 2 0 5 0 7 10 0 4 4

12
42 49 40 45 50 38 41 48 36 41 50 19 40 35 40 46 46 47 39 51 51 45 50 36 46 46

Invalid Votes
3 1 2 3 0 2 1 4 2 2 5 1 3 2 2 6 4 3 4 1 4 6 9 0 2 2