World population

World population
The world population is the sum total of all living humans on Earth. As of today, it is estimated to number 7.019billion by the United States Census Bureau (USCB).[3] The USCB estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012.[4] According to a separate estimate by the United Nations Population Fund, it reached this milestone on October 31, 2011.[5][6][7] The world population has experienced continuous growth since the end of the Great Famine and the Black Death in 1350, when it stood at around 370million.[8] The highest rates of growth global population increases above 1.8% per year were seen briefly during the 1950s, and for a longer period during the 1960s and 1970s. The growth rate peaked at 2.2% in 1963, and had [1] World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on UN 2010 projections [2] declined to 1.1% by 2011. Total annual (red, orange, green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates (black). According to the highest estimate, the world population may rise to 16 billion by births were highest in the late 1980s at about 2100; according to the lowest estimate, it may decline to only 6 billion. 138million,[9] and are now expected to remain essentially constant at their 2011 level of 134million, while deaths number 56million per year, and are expected to increase to 80million per year by 2040.[10] Current projections show a continued increase in population (but a steady decline in the population growth rate), with the global population expected to reach between 7.5and 10.5billion by 2050.[4][11][12]
[13]

World population (millions) # Top ten most populous countries 1 China 2 India 3 United States 4 Indonesia 5 Brazil 6 Pakistan 7 Bangladesh 8 Nigeria 9 Russia 10 Japan World total Top ten most populous (%)

1990 1,141 849 250 178 150 108 116 94 148 124 5,265 60.0 %

2008 1,333 1,140 304 228 192 166 160 151 142 128 6,688 58.9 %

2025* 1,458 1,398 352 273 223 226 198 208 137 126 8,004 57.5 %

World population

2
1 Asia + China + OECD Pacific* 2 Africa 3 Europe* + Russia + ex-Soviet Union* 4 Latin America 5 North America* 6 Middle East Australia European Union 27 states US + Canada Ex-Soviet Union Geographical definitions as in IEA Key Stats 2010 p.66 Notes:

1,613 1,141 187 634 564 148 133 355 359 132 17 473 278 289

2,183 1,333 202 984 603 142 136 462 444 199 22 499 338 285

2,693 1,458 210 1,365 659 137 146 550 514 272 28 539 392 289

Europe = OECD Europe + Non-OECD Europe and excluding Russia and including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania ex-Soviet Union (SU) = SU excluding Russia and Baltic states North America = US, Canada, Mexico OECD Pacific = Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand 2025 = with constant annual 2007/2008 growth until 2025

Population by region
Six of Earth's seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.2 billion inhabitants accounting for over 60% of the world population. The world's two most-populated countries alone, China and India, constitute about 37% of the world's population. Africa is the second-most-populated continent, with around 1 billion people, or 15% of the world's population. Europe's 733 million people make up 11% of the world's population, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 600 million (9%). Northern America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 352 million (5%), and Oceania, the least-populated region, has about 35 million inhabitants (0.5%).[14] Though it is not permanently inhabited by any fixed population, Antarctica has a small, fluctuating international population, based mainly in polar science stations. This population tends to rise in the summer months and decrease significantly in winter, as visiting researchers return to their home countries.[15]

Population by continent

World population

Continent name Asia Africa Europe North America South America Oceania Antarctica

Density (inhabitants/km2) 86.7 32.7 70 22.9

Population (2011)

Most populous country

Most populous city

4,140,336,501 994,527,534 738,523,843 528,720,588

China (1,341,403,687) Nigeria (152,217,341) Russia (142,905,200) United States (313,485,438) Brazil (190,732,694)

Tokyo (35,676,000) Cairo (19,439,541) Moscow (14,837,510) Mexico City/Metro Area (8,851,080 / 21,163,226) So Paulo (19,672,582)

21.4

385,742,554

4.25 0.0003 (varies)

36,102,071 4,490 (non-permanent, [16] varies) N/A

Australia (22,612,355) [17]

Sydney (4,575,532) McMurdo Station (955) [18]

Milestones by the billions

World population milestones (USCB estimates)
Population (in billions) Year Years elapsed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1804 1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012 2027 2046 123 33 14 13 12 13 15 19

It is estimated that the world population reached one billion for the first time in 1804. It would be another 123 years before it reached two billion in 1927, but it took only 33 years to reach three billion in 1960. Thereafter, the global population reached four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999 and, according to the United States Census Bureau, seven billion in March 2012.[3] The United Nations, however, estimated that the world population reached seven billion in October 2011.[5][6][7] According to current projections, the global population will reach eight billion by 2030, and will likely reach around nine billion by 2050. Alternative scenarios for 2050 range from a low of 7.4 billion to a high of more than 10.6 billion.[19] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and the variables used in projection calculations, especially the fertility variable. Long-range predictions to 2150 range from a population decline to 3.2 billion in the 'low scenario', to 'high scenarios' of 24.8 billion. One extreme scenario predicts a massive increase to 256 billion by 2150, assuming the global fertility rate remains at its 1995 level.[20] There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed the one or two billion marks. The days of three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of the United States Census Bureau places them in July 1959 and April 1974. The United Nations did determine, and celebrate, the "Day of 5 Billion" on July 11, 1987, and the "Day of 6 Billion" on October 12, 1999. The "Day of 7 Billion" was declared by the Population Division of the United Nations to be October 31, 2011.[21]

World population

History
Further information: World population estimatesandHistory of the world

Antiquity and Middle Ages

A dramatic population bottleneck is theorized for the period around 70,000 BC as a result of the Toba supervolcano eruption. From this time until the development of agriculture around the 11th millennium BC, it is estimated that the world population stabilized at about one million people, whose subsistence entailed hunting and foraging a lifestyle that by its nature ensured a low population density. The total world population probably never exceeded 15 million inhabitants before the invention of agriculture.[22] By contrast, it is estimated that more than 5060 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (AD 300400).[23] The plague which first emerged during the reign of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between 541 and the 8th century.[24] The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.[25] The Black Death pandemic of the 14th century may have reduced the world's population from an estimated 450 million in 1340 to between 350 and 375 million in 1400;[26] it took roughly 200 years for Europe's population to regain its 1340 level.[27] China experienced a population decline from an estimated 123 million around 1200 to an estimated 65 million in 1393,[28] which was presumably due to a combination of Mongol invasions and plague.[29] At the founding of the Ming Dynasty in 1368, China's population was reported to be close to 60 million; toward the end of the dynasty in 1644, it may have approached 150 million.[30][31] England's population reached an estimated 5.6 million in 1650, up from an estimated 2.6 million in 1500.[32] New crops that had come to Asia and Europe from the Americas via the Spanish colonizers in the 16th century are believed to have contributed to population growth.[33][34] Since being introduced by Portuguese traders in the 16th century,[35] maize and cassava have replaced traditional African crops as that continents most important staple food crops.[36] Alfred W. Crosby speculated that increased production of maize, cassava, and other American crops "...enabled the slave traders [who] drew many, perhaps most, of their cargoes from the rain forest areas, precisely those areas where American crops enabled heavier settlement than before."[37] The population of the Americas in 1500 may have been between 50 and 100 million.[38] The pre-Columbian North American population probably numbered somewhere between 2 million and 18 million.[39] Encounters between European explorers and populations in the rest of the world often introduced local epidemics of extraordinary virulence.[40] Archaeological evidence indicates that the death of around 90% of the Native American population of the New World was caused by Old World diseases such as smallpox, measles, and influenza.[41] Over the centuries, the Europeans had developed high degrees of immunity to these diseases, while the indigenous peoples had no such immunity.[42]

World population

Modern era
During the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.[45] The percentage of the children born in London who died before the age of five decreased from 74.5% in 17301749 to 31.8% in 18101829.[46][47] Between 1700 and 1900, Europes population increased from about 100 million to over 400 million.[48] Altogether, the areas of European settlement comprised 36% of the world's population in 1900.[49]

Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006. Only 3% of the world's population lived in cities in 1800; this proportion had risen to 47% by [43] 2000, and reached 50.5% by 2010. By 2050, the proportion may reach [44] 70%.

Population growth in the West became more rapid after the introduction of compulsory vaccination and improvements in medicine and sanitation.[50] As living conditions and health care improved during the 19th century, the United Kingdom's population doubled every fifty years.[51] By 1801, the population of England had grown to 8.3 million, and by 1901 it had reached 30.5 million; the population of the United Kingdom reached 60 million in 2006.[52][53] The United States saw its population grow from around 5.3 million in 1800 to 106 million in 1920, exceeding 307 million in 2010.[54] The first half of the 20th century in Russia and the Soviet Union was marked by a succession of wars, famines and other disasters, each accompanied by large-scale population losses.[55] By the end of World War II in 1945, the Russian population was about 90 million fewer than it could have been otherwise.[56] In recent decades, Russia's population has declined significantly from 148 million in 1991 to 143 million in 2012 and may sink as low as 107 million by 2050, if current demographic trends continue.[57] Many countries in the developing world have experienced rapid population growth over the past century. China's population rose from approximately 430 million in 1850 to 580 million in 1953,[58] and now stands at over 1.3 billion. The population of the Indian subcontinent, which stood at about 125 million in 1750, reached 389 million in 1941;[59] today, the region is home to over 1.22 billion people.[60] The population of Java increased from about five million in 1815 to more than 130 million in the early 21st century.[61] Mexico's population grew from 13.6 million in 1900 to about 112 million in 2009.[62] Between the 1920s and 2000s, Kenya's population grew from 2.9 million to 37 million.[63]

Demographics
As of 2012, the global sex ratio is approximately 1.01 males to 1 female the greater number of men is possibly due to the significant gender imbalances evident in the Indian and Chinese populations.[64][65] Approximately 26.3% of the global population is aged under 15, while 65.9% is aged 1564 and 7.9% is aged 65 or over.[64] The global average life expectancy is 67.07 years,[64] with women living an average of 69 years and men approximately 65 years.[64] 83% of the world's over-15s are considered literate.[64] The nominal 2011 gross world product was estimated at US$$70.16 trillion, giving an annual global per capita figure of around US$10,000.[66] Around 1.29 billion people (18.4% of the world population) live in extreme poverty, subsisting on less than US$1.25 per day;[67] approximately 925 million people (13.2%) are malnourished.[68] In December 2011, there were around 2.26 billion global Internet users, constituting 32.7% of the world population.[69] The Han Chinese are the world's largest single ethnic group, constituting over 19% of the global population, while the second-largest single ethnicity, the Bengali people, account for around 4.8%.[70] By comparison, people of white European descent constitute between 12% and 13% of the world population.[71] The world's most-spoken first

World population languages are Mandarin Chinese (spoken by 12.44% of the world's population), Spanish (4.85%), English (4.83%), Arabic (3.25%) and Hindi-Urdu (2.68%).[64] The world's largest religion is Christianity, whose adherents account for 33.35% of the global population; Islam is the second-largest religion, accounting for 22.43%, and Hinduism the third, accounting for 13.78%.[64] In 2005, around 16% of the global population were reported to be non-religious.[72]

Largest populations by country

Further information: List of countries by population

A map of the world's countries by total population, with darker shading indicating larger populations.

The 10 countries with the largest total population:

Rank Country / Territory Population Date % of Source world population 19.3% 17% 4.47% 3.34% 2.8% 2.56% 2.42% 2.29% 2.022% 1.82% [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

China India

[73]

1351360000 1,203,710,000 313717000 238,400,000 196536000 179809000 170,123,740 161,083,804

June 12, 2012 March 2011 June 12, 2012 May 2010 June 12, 2012 June 12, 2012 July 2012 July 2012

United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Russia Japan

141,927,297 January 1, 2010 127,610,000 May 1, 2012

Approximately 4.06 billion people live in these ten countries, representing around 58% of the world's population as of April 2012.

World population

Most densely populated countries

Further information: List of countries and dependencies by population density The tables below list the world's most densely populated countries, both in absolute terms and in comparison to their total populations.

Population density (people per km2) map of the world in 1994. Red and pink areas denote regions of highest population density.

10 most densely populated countries (with population above 1 million)

Rank Country/Region Population Area (km2) Density (Pop. per km2) 7301 1646 964 631 634 487 407 404 404 371

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Singapore Bahrain Bangladesh Mauritius Taiwan

5,183,700 1,234,596

710 750

142,325,250 147,570 1,288,000 22,955,395 2,040 36,190 99,538 26,338 10,452 41,526 20,770

South Korea 48,456,369 Rwanda Lebanon 10,718,379 4,224,000

Netherlands 16,760,000 Israel 7,697,600

Countries ranking highly in terms of both total population (more than 15 million people) and population density (more than 250 people per square kilometer):
Country Population Area (km2) Density (Pop. per km2) 369 964 337 313 259 Notes

India Bangladesh Japan Philippines Vietnam

1214470000 3287240 142,325,250 147,570 127,170,110 377,873 94,013,200 85,789,573 300,076 331,689

Growing country Fast-growing country Declining in population Fast-growing country Growing country

World population
[84]

8
United Kingdom 62,041,708 South Korea Taiwan Sri Lanka Netherlands 49,354,980 22,955,395 20,238,000 16780000 243,610 99,538 35,980 65,610 41526 255 493 640 309 404

Growing country

Steady in population Declining in population Growing country Steady in population [85][86]

Growth
Different geographical regions have different rates of population growth. According to the United Nations, the growth in population of the different regions of the world from 2000 to 2005 totalled: 227,771,000 in Asia; 92,293,000 in Africa; 38,052,000 in Latin America; 16,241,000 in Northern America; 3,264,000 in Europe; 1,955,000 in Oceania; 383,047,000 in the entire world.

During the 20th century, the global population saw its greatest increase in known history, rising from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to over 6 billion in 2000. This increase was due to a number of factors, Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions including the lessening of the mortality rate of people. in many countries by improved sanitation and medical advances, and a massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[87][88][89] In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at an annual rate of 1.14% (equivalent to around 75 million people),[90] down from a peak of 88 million per year in 1989. By 2000, there were approximately ten times as many people on Earth as there had been in 1700. According to data from the CIA's 20052006 World Factbooks, the world population increased by an average of 203,800 people every day in the mid-2000s.[91] The World Factbook increased this estimate to 211,090 people every day in 2007, and again to 220,980 people every day in 2009.

World population

Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan [92] Africa. In some countries, there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe this is mainly due to low fertility rates. A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman, according to the The World FactbookCIA World Factbook's 2012 data. During the 2010s, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth, due to sub-replacement fertility rates. In 2006, the United Nations stated that the rate of population growth was visibly diminishing due to the ongoing global demographic transition. If this trend continues, the rate of growth may diminish to zero by 2050, concurrent with a world population plateau of 9.2 billion.[93] However, this is only one of many estimates published by the UN. In 2009, UN population projections for 2050 ranged from about 8 billion to 10.5 billion.[94]

Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC2000 AD.

Estimated world population figures, 10,000 BC2000 AD (in log y scale).

World population figures, 19502000.

Estimated global growth rates, 19502050.

Estimated and projected populations of the world and its continents (except Antarctica) from 1950 to 2100. The shaded regions correspond to the range of projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

World population forecast to 2050 from International Futures.

World population

10

Forecasts UN (medium variant 2010 revision) and US Census Bureau (December 2010) estimates[95][96]
Year UN est. Difference US est. Difference (millions) (millions) 6,123 6,896 7,657 8,321 8,874 9,306 773 761 665 553 432 6,090 6,852 7,593 8,249 8,801 9,256 763 740 656 552 456

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict. The United Nations and the US Census Bureau both give different estimates. According to the latter, the world population reached seven billion in March 2012,[97] while the UN asserted that this occurred in late 2011.[12] Average global birth rates are declining slightly, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels) and developing countries (where birth rates typically remain high). Different ethnicities also display varying birth rates. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and other mass catastrophes, or advances in medicine. The UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. From 2000 to 2005, the UN consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision, issued on March 14, 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.
UN 2008 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions) Year World 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Asia Africa
[98]

Europe Latin America Northern America 521 (8.5%) 557 (8.6%) 589 (8.5%) 618 (8.5%) 646 (8.4%) 670 (8.4%) 690 (8.3%) 706 (8.2%) 718 (8.2%) 726 (8.1%) 729 (8.0%)

Oceania

6,115 3,698 (60.5%) 6,512 3,937 (60.5%)

819 (13.4%) 727 (11.9%) 921 (14.1%) 729 (11.2%)

319 (5.2%) 31 (0.5%) 335 (5.1%) 34 (0.5%) 352 (5.1%) 36 (0.5%) 368 (5.0%) 38 (0.5%) 383 (5.0%) 40 (0.5%) 398 (5.0%) 43 (0.5%) 410 (4.9%) 45 (0.5%) 421 (4.9%) 46 (0.5%) 431 (4.9%) 48 (0.5%) 440 (4.9%) 50 (0.6%) 448 (4.9%) 51 (0.6%)

6,909 4,167 (60.3%) 1,033 (15.0%) 733 (10.6%) 7,302 4,391 (60.1%) 1,153 (15.8%) 734 (10.1%) 7,675 4,596 (59.9%) 1,276 (16.6%) 8,012 4,773 (59.6%) 1,400 (17.5%) 8,309 4,917 (59.2%) 1,524 (18.3%) 8,571 5,032 (58.7%) 1,647 (19.2%) 8,801 5,125 (58.2%) 1,770 (20.1%) 8,996 5,193 (57.7%) 1,887 (21.0%) 9,150 5,231 (57.2%) 1,998 (21.8%) 733 (9.6%) 729 (9.1%) 723 (8.7%) 716 (8.4%) 708 (8.0%) 700 (7.8%) 691 (7.6%)

World population

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Population growth by region

The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions.[98][99][100][101] The availability of historical population figures varies by region.
World historical and predicted populations (in millions)
[102][103]

Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150 World Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the [104] Caribbean Northern America
[104]

458 86 243 84 39

580 114 339 111 10

682 106 436 125 10

791 106 502 163 16

978 1,262 1,650 2,521 5,978 6,707 8,909 9,746 107 635 203 24 111 809 276 38 133 221 767 973 1,766 2,308

947 1,402 3,634 4,054 5,268 5,561 408 74 547 167 729 511 732 577 628 809 517 912

3 3

3 3

2 3

2 2

7 2

26 2

82 6

172 13

307 30
[102][103]

337 34

392 46

398 51

Oceania

World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution

Region 1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150 World 100 100 100 100 100 100 8.8 100 8.1 100 100 100 100 100

Africa 18.8 19.7 15.5 13.4 10.9

8.8 12.8 14.5 19.8 23.7

Asia 53.1 58.4 63.9 63.5 64.9 64.1 57.4 55.6 60.8 60.4 59.1 57.1 Europe 18.3 19.1 18.3 20.6 20.8 21.9 24.7 21.7 12.2 10.9 Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America
[104] [104]

7.0 9.1 4.4 0.5

5.3 9.4 4.1 0.5

8.5 0.7 0.7

1.7 0.5 0.5

1.5 0.3 0.4

2.0 0.3 0.3

2.5 0.7 0.2

3.0 2.1 0.2

4.5 5.0 0.4

6.6 6.8 0.5

8.5 5.1 0.5

8.6 5.0 0.5

Oceania

Estimated world population at various dates (in millions) Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America[104] Northern America Oceania Notes 70,000 BC < 0.015 10,000 BC 9000 BC 8000 BC 7000 BC 6000 BC 5000 BC 4000 BC 3000 BC 2000 BC 1 3 5 7 10 15 20 25 35
[106] [105]

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50 100 200 310 791 978 1,262 1,650 2,519 2,756 2,982 3,335 3,692 4,068 4,435 4,831 5,263 5,674 6,070 6,454 6,972 106 107 111 133 502 635 809 947 163 203 276 408 547 575 601 634 656 675 692 706 721 727 728 725 732 16 24 38 74 167 191 209 250 285 322 361 401 441 481 520 558 580 2 7 26 82 172 187 204 219 232 243 256 269 283 299 316 332 351 2 2 2 6 12.8 14.3 15.9 17.6 19.4 21.5 22.8 24.7 26.7 28.9 31.0 32.9 35.6
[108]

1000 BC 500 BC AD 1 1000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

[106] [106] [107]

221 1,398 247 1,542 277 1,674 314 1,899 357 2,143 408 2,397 470 2,632 542 2,887 622 3,168 707 3,430 796 3,680 888 3,917 1,022 4,252

Year World Africa Asia Europe

[1] http:/ / esa. un. org/ wpp/ unpp/ panel_population. htm [2] http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ worldhis. html

Latin America Northern America Oceania Notes

[3] "U.S. Census Bureau World POPClock Projection" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ population/ popclockworld. html). . The number on this page is automatically updated daily. [4] "World Population Clock Worldometers" (http:/ / www. worldometers. info/ world-population/ ). Worldometers.info. . Retrieved 2012-04-12. [5] "Population seven billion: UN sets out challenges" (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ news/ world-15459643). BBC. 2011-10-26. . Retrieved 2011-10-27. [6] "World's 'seven billionth baby' is born" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ world/ 2011/ oct/ 31/ seven-billionth-baby-born-philippines?intcmp=122). The Guardian. 2011-10-31. . Retrieved 2011-10-31. [7] "7 billion people is a 'serious challenge'" (http:/ / www. upi. com/ Top_News/ US/ 2011/ 10/ 31/ 7-billion-people-is-a-serious-challenge/ UPI-73301320046200/ ). UPI, October 31, 2011. Retrieved 2011-11-09. [8] Jean-Nol Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 113. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Nol Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'volution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 1325. [9] UN World Population Prospects, 2010 revision (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpd/ wpp/ Excel-Data/ DB01_Period_Indicators/ WPP2010_DB1_F04_BIRTHS_BOTH_SEXES. XLS). (686 million births from 19851990). [10] "World Population estimates by the US Census Bureau" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ population/ international/ data/ idb/ region. php?N= Region Results & T=7& A=aggregate& RT=0& Y=2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036,2037,2038,20 R=1& C=). USCB. . Retrieved 2012-05-22. [11] "International Data Base (IDB) World Population" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ idb/ worldpopinfo. php). Census.gov. 2010-06-28. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [12] "World Population Prospects:The 2008 Revision" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ popnews/ Newsltr_87. pdf). Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. June 2009. .

World population
[13] CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (http:/ / www. iea. org/ co2highlights/ co2Highlights. XLS) Population 19712008 ( pdf (http:/ / iea. org/ co2highlights/ co2highlights. pdf), pp. 8385) IEA (OECD/ World Bank) (original population ref OECD/ World Bank, e.g., in IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2010 page 57) [14] "World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Population Database" (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpd/ wpp/ Analytical-Figures/ htm/ fig_2. htm). Esa.un.org. 2011-04-15. . Retrieved 2012-04-21. [15] "Life on an Antarctic Station" (http:/ / www. antarcticconnection. com/ antarctic/ science/ stationlife. shtml). Antarctic Connection. Retrieved 2011-10-28. [16] CIA World Factbook (https:/ / www. cia. gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ ay. html), March 2011 data. Retrieved 2011-12-24. [17] The Antarctic Treaty System limits the nature of national claims in Antarctica. Of the territorial claims in Antarctica, the Ross Dependency has the largest population. [18] "What is the population of McMurdo this time of year?" (http:/ / antarcticfudgesicles. wordpress. com/ afsa-student-page/ 41-what-is-the-population-of-mcmurdo-this-time-of-year-what-does-the-population-demographic-look-like-is-it-all-scientists/ ). Antarctic Adventures, 2011-05-01. Retrieved 2011-10-28. "Ch. 5: Population Size and Composition" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ wpp2000/ chapter5. pdf). World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision. Vol.III. United Nations Population Division. p.171. . Retrieved 2010-07-03. "Executive Summary" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ wpp2002/ English. pdf). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Volume III: Analytical Report. 2002. . Retrieved 2010-07-03. World Population to 2300 (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ longrange2/ WorldPop2300final. pdf). New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division. 2004. pp. 3, 14. . Retrieved 2010-07-03.

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World Population: 19502050 (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ idb/ worldpopgraph. php). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Update as at June 2010. . Retrieved 2010-07-03. 2009 World Population Data Sheet (http:/ / www. prb. org/ pdf09/ 09wpds_eng. pdf). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. 2009. . Retrieved 2010-07-03. [20] "Key Findings" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ longrange/ longrangeKeyFind. pdf). Long-Range Population Projections. New York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2003. . Retrieved 2010-07-03 [21] World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision Frequently Asked Questions (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpd/ wpp/ Other-Information/ faq. htm) Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, updated November 10, 2010. Retrieved 2011-01-26. [22] Luc-Normand Tellier (2009). " Urban world history: an economic and geographical perspective (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=cXuCjDbxC1YC& pg=PA26& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". PUQ. p.26. ISBN 2-7605-1588-5 [23] " Population estimates of the Roman Empire (http:/ / www. tulane. edu/ ~august/ H303/ handouts/ Population. htm)", Dr. Kenneth W. Harl [24] "Plague, Plague Information, Black Death Facts, News, Photos" (http:/ / science. nationalgeographic. com/ science/ health-and-human-body/ human-diseases/ plague-article. html). National Geographic. . Retrieved 2008-11-03. [25] " History of Europe Demographic and agricultural growth (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ EBchecked/ topic/ 195896/ history-of-Europe/ 276190/ Demographic-and-agricultural-growth#ref=ref994290)". Encyclopdia Britannica. [26] "Historical Estimates of World Population" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ worldhis. html). Census.gov. . Retrieved 2008-11-03. [27] " A Distant Mirror (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ world/ article/ 0,8599,2050585,00. html)". TIME Europe. July 17, 2000, VOL. 156 NO. 3 [28] Horst R. Thieme (2003). " Mathematics in population biology (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=cHcjnkrMweYC& pg=PA285& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Princeton University Press. p.285. ISBN 0-691-09291-5 [29] Graziella Caselli, Gillaume Wunsch, Jacques Vallin (2005). " Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=nmgNXoiAiU4C& pg=RA2-PA34& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Academic Press. p.34. ISBN 0-12-765660-X [30] Ming Dynasty (http:/ / encarta. msn. com/ encyclopedia_761580643/ ming_dynasty. html). Microsoft Encarta Online Encyclopedia 2009. [31] " Qing China's Internal Crisis: Land Shortage, Famine, Rural Poverty (http:/ / afe. easia. columbia. edu/ special/ china_1750_demographic. htm)". Asia for Educators, Columbia University. [32] " History of Europe Demographics (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ EBchecked/ topic/ 195896/ history-of-Europe/ 58335/ Demographics#ref=ref310375)". Encyclopdia Britannica. [33] " China's Population: Readings and Maps (http:/ / afe. easia. columbia. edu/ china/ geog/ population. htm)". Columbia University, East Asian Curriculum Project. [34] The Columbian Exchange (http:/ / www. learnnc. org/ lp/ editions/ nchist-twoworlds/ 1866). The University of North Carolina. [35] Super-Sized Cassava Plants May Help Fight Hunger In Africa (http:/ / researchnews. osu. edu/ archive/ suprtubr. htm). The Ohio State University [36] " Albert Schweitzer: a biography (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=zOm0iqkRsYEC& pg=PA242& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". James Brabazon (2000). Syracuse University Press. p.242. ISBN 0-8156-0675-3 [37] " Savoring Africa in the New World by Robert L. Hall (http:/ / www. millersville. edu/ ~columbus/ data/ art/ HALLRL-1. ART)". Millersville University.

World population
[38] J. N. Hays (1998). " The burdens of disease: epidemics and human response in western history. (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=iMHmn9c38QgC& pg=PA72& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". p 72. ISBN 0-8135-2528-4 [39] " Microchronology and Demographic Evidence Relating to the Size of Pre-Columbian North American Indian Populations (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 268/ 5217/ 1601)". Science. [40] Arthur C. Aufderheide, Conrado Rodrguez-Martn, Odin Langsjoen (1998). " The Cambridge encyclopedia of human paleopathology (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=qubTdDk1H3IC& pg=PA205& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Cambridge University Press. p.205. ISBN 0-521-55203-6 [41] " The Story Of... Smallpox and other Deadly Eurasian Germs (http:/ / www. pbs. org/ gunsgermssteel/ variables/ smallpox. html)". Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). [42] Austin Alchon, Suzanne (2003). A pest in the land: new world epidemics in a global perspective (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=YiHHnV08ebkC& pg=PA31& dq#v=onepage& q=& f=false). University of New Mexico Press. p.31. ISBN0-8263-2871-7. . [43] World Demographics Profile 2012 (http:/ / www. indexmundi. com/ world/ demographics_profile. html). Index Mundi. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [44] "By 2050, 70% of the world's population will be urban. Is that a good thing?" (http:/ / www. fastcodesign. com/ 1669244/ by-2050-70-of-the-worlds-population-will-be-urban-is-that-a-good-thing) Fast Co. Design, 2012. Retrieved 2012-05-01. [45] Population crises and cycles in history (http:/ / home. vicnet. net. au/ ~ozideas/ poprus. htm). A review of the book Population Crises and Population cycles by Claire Russell and W.M.S. Russell. [46] Mabel C. Buer, Health, Wealth and Population in the Early Days of the Industrial Revolution, London: George Routledge & Sons, 1926, page 30 ISBN 0-415-38218-1 [47] BBC History The Foundling Hospital (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ history/ british/ victorians/ foundling_01. shtml). Published: 2001-05-01. [48] " Modernization Population Change (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ EBchecked/ topic/ 387301/ modernization/ 12022/ Population-change)". Encyclopdia Britannica. [49] Graziella Caselli, Gillaume Wunsch, Jacques Vallin (2005). " Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=nmgNXoiAiU4C& pg=RA2-PA42& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Academic Press. p.42. ISBN 0-12-765660-X [50] BBC History Victorian Medicine From Fluke to Theory (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ history/ british/ victorians/ victorian_medicine_01. shtml). Published: 2002-02-01. [51] A portrait of Britain in 2031 (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ uk/ home-news/ a-portrait-of-britain-in-2031-395231. html). The Independent. October 24, 2007. [52] "The UK population: past, present and future" (http:/ / www. statistics. gov. uk/ downloads/ theme_compendia/ fom2005/ 01_FOPM_Population. pdf) (PDF). Statistics.gov.uk. . Retrieved 2009-09-05. [53] "UK population breaks through 60m" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ uk/ 5281360. stm). BBC, 24 August 2006. Retrieved 2012-04-14. [54] "US population through history" (http:/ / geography. about. com/ od/ obtainpopulationdata/ a/ uspop. htm). About.com. Retrieved 2012-04-14. [55] Mark Harrison (2002). " Accounting for War: Soviet Production, Employment, and the Defence Burden, 19401945 (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=yJcD7_Q_rQ8C& pg=PA167& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Cambridge University Press. p.167. ISBN 0-521-89424-7 [56] Stephen J. Lee (2000). " European dictatorships, 19181945 (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=KnvJO9yfvEAC& pg=PA86& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Routledge. p.86. ISBN 0-415-23046-2 [57] "Vladimir Putin vows to reverse Russian population decline" (http:/ / www. telegraph. co. uk/ news/ worldnews/ vladimir-putin/ 9078672/ Vladimir-Putin-vows-to-reverse-Russian-population-decline. html). The Daily Telegraph, 13 February 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-13. [58] "China's demographic evolution 1850-1953 reconsidered" (http:/ / www. jstor. org/ discover/ 10. 2307/ 652987?uid=3738032& uid=2460337935& uid=2460338175& uid=2129& uid=2& uid=70& uid=4& uid=83& uid=63& sid=56034385973). The China Quarterly, 1978, via JSTOR. Retrieved 2012-04-13. [59] Reintegrating India with the World Economy (http:/ / www. petersoninstitute. org/ publications/ chapters_preview/ 98/ 1iie2806. pdf). Peterson Institute for International Economics. [60] CIA World Factbook (https:/ / www. cia. gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ in. html). July 2010 est. Retrieved 2011-11-28. [61] Java (island, Indonesia) (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ EBchecked/ topic/ 301673/ Java). Encyclopdia Britannica. [62] " From Traitors to Heroes: 100 Years of Mexican Migration Policies (http:/ / www. migrationinformation. org/ Feature/ display. cfm?ID=203)". Jorge Durand, University of Guadalajara. March 2004. [63] " Kenya's Violence: Exploding population (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2008/ 01/ 17/ opinion/ 17iht-edheinsohn. 1. 9292632. html)". The New York Times. January 7, 2008. Gunnar Heinsohn [64] World Demographics Profile 2011 (http:/ / www. indexmundi. com/ world/ demographics_profile. html), Index Mundi. Retrieved 2011-11-18. [65] "Sex-ratio imbalance in Asia: Trends, consequences and policy responses" (http:/ / www. unfpa. org/ gender/ docs/ studies/ summaries/ reg_exe_summary. pdf). UNFPA. 2007. . Retrieved 2012-05-20.

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World population
[66] World (https:/ / www. cia. gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ xx. html). CIA World Factbook, 13 April 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-25. [67] "What It Will Take to 'Graduate' 1.2 Billion People Out of Extreme Poverty" (http:/ / www. huffingtonpost. com/ susan-davis/ the-worlds-ultrapoor-reach_b_1400233. html). Huffington Post, 4 April 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-26. [68] 2012 World Hunger and Poverty Facts and Statistics (http:/ / www. worldhunger. org/ articles/ Learn/ world hunger facts 2002. htm). WorldHunger.org, 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-26. [69] Internet World Stats (http:/ / www. internetworldstats. com/ stats. htm). December 2011 data. Retrieved 2012-04-22. [70] "Worlds Most Typical Person: Han Chinese Man" (http:/ / blogs. wsj. com/ chinarealtime/ 2011/ 03/ 04/ worlds-most-typical-person-han-chinese-man/ ). Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2011. Retrieved 2011-11-18. [71] Including various separate national white ethnic groups, such as Germans, French and English. [72] Religions by adherents (http:/ / www. adherents. com/ Religions_By_Adherents. html). Adherents.com 2005 data. Retrieved 2011-12-19. [73] Figure refers to Mainland China only. It excludes the special administrative regions and Taiwan. [74] Chinese Official Population Clock (in Chinese) (http:/ / www. cpdrc. org. cn/ index. asp). CPDRC.org.cn. Updated daily. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [75] 2011 Census (http:/ / www. censusindia. gov. in/ 2011-prov-results/ indiaatglance. html). Census of India, 2011. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [76] United States Official Population Clock (http:/ / www. census. gov/ population/ www/ popclockus. html). USCB. Updated daily. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [77] SuluhNusantara Indonesia Census report (http:/ / www. suluhnusantara. com/ mags/ index. php?option=com_content& view=article& id=7379:penduduk-indonesia-tembus-2384-juta-jiwa& catid=76:hot-topic& Itemid=294). [78] Brazilian Official Population Clock (http:/ / www. ibge. gov. br/ english). IBGE.gov.br. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [79] Official Pakistani Population Clock (http:/ / www. statpak. gov. pk/ depts/ pco). [80] Nigeria (https:/ / www. cia. gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ ni. html). CIA World Factbook estimate, 10 May 2012. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [81] Bangladesh (https:/ / www. cia. gov/ library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ bg. html). CIA World Factbook estimate, 7 May 2012. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [82] Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (Excel document, in Russian) (http:/ / www. gks. ru/ free_doc/ 2010/ popul10-Pr. xls). GKS.ru, 2010. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [83] Official Japan Statistics Bureau (http:/ / www. stat. go. jp/ english/ data/ jinsui/ tsuki/ index. htm). May 2012 estimate. Retrieved 2012-05-22. [84] UK population 'to increase to 70 million by 2027' (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ news/ uk-15461579). BBC, October 26, 2011. Retrieved 2012-04-10. [85] "Why Has Taiwan's Birthrate Dropped So Low?" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ world/ article/ 0,8599,1945937,00. html) TIME, December 7, 2009. Retrieved 2011-12-17. [86] "Taiwan Birth Rate Falls to Worlds Lowest" (http:/ / www. voanews. com/ english/ news/ asia/ Taiwan-Birth-Rate-Falls-to-Worlds-Lowest-Challenging-Productivity-127933153. html). VoA, August 17, 2011. Retrieved 2011-12-17. [87] "The limits of a Green Revolution?" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ in_depth/ 6496585. stm). BBC News. 2007-03-29. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [88] "The Real Green Revolution" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080623070232/ http:/ / www. energybulletin. net/ 19525. html). Energybulletin.net. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. energybulletin. net/ 19525. html) on 2008-06-23. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [89] World Population to 2300 (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ longrange2/ WorldPop2300final. pdf) Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, 2004 [90] "census.gov" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ worldpop. html). census.gov. 2009-01-07. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [91] "Current world population (ranked)" (http:/ / www. xist. org/ earth/ population1. aspx). Xist.org. 2009-07-01. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [92] Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New York (2006) ISBN 0-312-42581-3 [93] "UN 2006 report highlights" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ wpp2006/ WPP2006_Highlights_rev. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [94] "UN population estimates and projections, database query, August 2009" (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpp/ ). Esa.un.org. 2009-03-11. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [95] "World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Population Database" (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpd/ wpp/ unpp/ panel_population. htm). Esa.un.org. 2011-05-03. . Retrieved 2011-05-06. [96] "US Census Bureau Total Midyear Population for the World: 19502050" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ idb/ worldpoptotal. php). Census.gov. 2010-12-01. . Retrieved 2011-06-05. [97] "Notes on the World POPClock and World Vital Events" (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ popwnote. html). US Census Bureau. . [98] World Population Prospects (http:/ / esa. un. org/ unpp): The 2008 Revision Population Database [99] "The World at" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ sixbillion/ sixbillion. htm). Un.org. 1999-10-12. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [100] "Population Growth over Human History" (http:/ / www. globalchange. umich. edu/ globalchange2/ current/ lectures/ human_pop/ human_pop. html). Globalchange.umich.edu. . Retrieved 2010-08-01.

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World population
[101] "Geo Hive: the population of continents, regions and countries (Jul. 1, 2008)" (http:/ / www. xist. org/ earth/ pop_region. aspx). Xist.org. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [102] Figures include the former Soviet Union in Europe. Caselli, Graziella; Gillaume Wunsch, Jacques Vallin (2005-12-20). Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set: A Treatise in Population. Academic Press. p.42. ISBN978-0-12-765660-1. [103] "UN report 2004 data" (http:/ / www. un. org/ esa/ population/ publications/ sixbillion/ sixbilpart1. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [104] Northern America comprises the northern-most countries and territories of North America: Canada, the United States, Greenland, Bermuda, and St. Pierre and Miquelon. Latin America comprises Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean and South America. [105] Fewer than 15,000 individuals, according to the Toba catastrophe theory; see also Humans lived in tiny, separate bands for 100,000 years (http:/ / www. breitbart. com/ article. php?id=080425101050. cni2ks3u& show_article=1). Breitbart.com. [106] an average of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ worldhis. html); see also *Kremer, Michael. 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 681716. [107] The range of figures from different sources as listed at the US Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population (http:/ / www. census. gov/ ipc/ www/ worldhis. html) put the world population in AD 1 between 170 million and 400 million. [108] "The population of continents, regions and countries" (http:/ / www. xist. org/ earth/ pop_region. aspx). GeoHive, July 2010 data. Retrieved 2012-05-22.

16

The figures for North America only refer to post-European contact settlers, and not native populations from before European settlement.

Mathematical approximations
Hoerner (1975) proposed a formula for population growth[1] which represented hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025. The hyperbolic growth of the world population observed until the 1970s has recently been correlated to a non-linear second order positive feedback between demographic growth and technological development. This feedback can be described as follows: technological growth increase in the carrying capacity of land for people demographic growth more people more potential inventors acceleration of technological growth accelerating growth of the carrying capacity - faster population growth accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors faster technological growth hence, the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on.[2] According to Kapitsa (1997),[3] the world population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965 according to the following formula:

where N is current population T is the current year C = (1.860.01)1011 T0 = 20071 = 421

The transition from hyperbolic growth to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.

World population

17

Years for world population to double

Using linear interpolation and extrapolation of UNDESA population estimates, the world population has doubled, or will double, in the following years (with two different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling took roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, after 2025 it is unlikely that there will be another doubling of the global population in the 21st century.[4]

Historic chart showing the periods of time the world population has taken to double, from 1700 to 2000.

Starting at 500 million

Population (in billions) Year 0.5 1 2 4 8

1500 1804 1927 1974 2025 304 123 47 51

Years elapsed

Starting at 375 million

Population 0.375 0.75 (in billions) Year 1.5 3 6

1171 1715 1881 1960 1999 544 166 79 39

Years elapsed

Overpopulation
The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in usage of resources is linked to threats to the global ecosystem.[5][6] The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion.[7] At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and lower-bound scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates show will be reached in the late 2020s.

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Population control
Human population control is the practice of artificially altering the rate of growth of a human population. Historically, human population control has been implemented by limiting the population's birth rate, by contraception or by government mandate, and has been undertaken as a response to factors including high or increasing levels of poverty, environmental concerns, religious reasons, and overpopulation. The use of abortion in some strategies has made human population control a controversial issue, with organizations such as the Roman Catholic Church explicitly opposing the artificial limitation of the human population.[8]

Forecasts of scarcity
In 1798, the economist Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that continued population growth would exhaust the global food supply by the mid-19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The Population Bomb, predicting mass global famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research already under way, such as the Green Revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has so far kept pace with population growth, but neo-Malthusians point out that the Green Revolution relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure could potentially have global repercussions. Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread widely.[9] From 1950 to 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%.[10] The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic [11] Graph of the global human population from 10,000 BC to 2010 AD, from the US Census malnutrition in 2005). The energy Bureau. The graph shows the extremely rapid growth in the world population that has for the Green Revolution was provided taken place since the 18th century. by fossil fuels, in the form of natural gas-derived fertilizers, oil-derived pesticides, and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.[12] The potential peaking of world oil production may test the critics of Malthus and Ehrlich, as oil is of crucial importance to global transportation, power generation and agriculture.[13] In May 2008, the price of grain was pushed up severely by the increased cultivation of biofuels,[14] the increase of world oil prices to over $140 per barrel ($880/m3),[15] global population growth,[16] the effects of climate change,[17] the loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development,[18][19] and growing consumer demand in the population centres of China and India.[20][21] Food riots subsequently occurred in some countries across the world.[22] However, oil prices then fell sharply, and remaining below $100/barrel until around 2010. Resource demands are expected to ease as population growth declines, but it is unclear whether rising living standards in developing countries will once again create resource shortages.[23]

World population Richard C. Duncan claims the that the world population will decline to about 2 billion around 2050.[24] David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, estimates that the sustainable agricultural carrying capacity for the United States is about 200 million people; its population as of 2011 is over 310 million.[25] In 2009, the UK government's chief scientific advisor, Professor John Beddington, warned that growing populations, falling energy reserves and food shortages would create a "perfect storm" by 2030. Beddington claimed that food reserves were at a fifty-year low, and that the world would require 50% more energy, food and water by 2030.[26][27] According to a 2009 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people.[28] The observed figures for 2007 showed an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, with 923 million undernourished in 2007, versus 832 million in 1995.[29] The 2009 FAO estimates showed an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion.[30]

19

Number of humans who have ever lived

Further information: Paleodemography An estimate of the total number of humans who have ever lived was prepared by Carl Haub of the nonprofit Population Reference Bureau in 1995, and was subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure totalled approximately 106 billion.[31][32] Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period".[32] Given an estimated global population of 6.2 billion in 2002, it could be inferred that about 6% of all people who had ever existed were alive in 2002.[31] Various estimates published in the first decade of the 21st century give figures ranging from approximately 100 billion to 115 billion. In the 1970s, claims emerged alleging that 75% of all the people who had ever lived were alive at that time. This view was eventually debunked as unscientific.[33]

Methodologies
An accurate estimate of the number of humans who have ever lived is difficult to produce for numerous reasons. Firstly, the set of specific characteristics that define a "human" is a matter of definition, and it is open to debate which members of early Homo sapiens and earlier or related species of Homo to include in the estimate (see also Sorites paradox). Even if the scientific community reached a broad consensus regarding which characteristics distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest millennium, due to the scarcity of fossil evidence. However, the very limited size of the world population in prehistoric times (as compared to its current size) makes this source of uncertainty of limited importance. More importantly, robust population data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as Ancient Egypt and in the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation or military service.[34] All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century are imprecise estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of humans who have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens of billions of people. Another critical factor for such an estimate is life expectancy. Using an average figure of twenty years and the population estimates above, one can compute a total of about 58 billion. Using a figure of forty yields around 30 billion. However, life expectancy varies greatly when taking into account children who died before their first birthday, a number very difficult to estimate for earlier times. Haub states that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history".[32] His estimates for infant mortality suggest that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond their first birthday.

World population

20

United Nations population agencies

The United Nations operates several organisations with various population-related competencies, including the Commission on Population and Development, the United Nations Population Division, and the United Nations Population Fund.

References
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Energy Bulletin. . [13] "Peak Oil And Famine: Four Billion Deaths" (http:/ / www. countercurrents. org/ goodchild291007. htm). Countercurrents. . [14] "2008: The year of global food crisis" (http:/ / www. sundayherald. com/ news/ heraldnews/ display. var. 2104849. 0. 2008_the_year_of_global_food_crisis. php). Sunday Herald. . [15] "The global grain bubble" (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2008/ 0118/ p08s01-comv. html). Csmonitor.com. 2008-01-18. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [16] James Randerson, science correspondent (2008-03-07). "Food crisis will take hold before climate change, warns chief scientist" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ science/ 2008/ mar/ 07/ scienceofclimatechange. food). London: Guardian. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [17] John Vidal, environment editor (2007-11-03). "Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2007/ nov/ 03/ food. climatechange). London: Guardian. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [18] Walsoft (2008-02-22). "Experts: Global Food Shortages Could Continue for Decades'" (http:/ / www. marketoracle. co. uk/ Article3782. html). Marketoracle.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [19] "Has Urbanization Caused a Loss to Agricultural Land?" (http:/ / www. moyak. com/ papers/ urbanization-agriculture. html). Moyak.com. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [20] Walt, Vivienne (2008-02-27). "The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ world/ article/ 0,8599,1717572,00. html). Time.com. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [21] The cost of food: Facts and figures (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ world/ 7284196. stm). BBC News. October 16, 2008. [22] Julian Borger, diplomatic editor (2008-02-26). "Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2008/ feb/ 26/ food. unitednations). London: Guardian. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. 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[29] Food and Agriculture Organization Economic and Social Development Department. The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008 : High food prices and food security threats and opportunities (http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 011/ i0291e/ i0291e00. htm). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2008, p. 2. [30] One sixth of humanity undernourished more than ever before (http:/ / www. fao. org/ news/ story/ en/ item/ 20568/ icode/ ). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2009 [31] Curtin, Ciara (2007-03-01). "Fact or Fiction?: Living People Outnumber the Dead" (http:/ / www. sciam. com/ article. cfm?id=fact-or-fiction-living-outnumber-dead). Scientific American (Scientific American, Inc.) 297 (3): 126. September 2007. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0907-126. . Retrieved 2008-08-04. Note: text of paper publication slightly different from text of on-line publication [32] Haub, Carl (November/December 2002). "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" (http:/ / www. prb. org/ pdf/ PT_novdec02. pdf). Population Today (Population Reference Bureau) 30 (8): pp.34. . Retrieved 2008-08-04. [33] "Population Reference Bureau" (http:/ / www. prb. org/ Articles/ 2002/ HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth. aspx). Prb.org. 2002-12-01. . Retrieved 2010-08-01. [34] Kuhrt, A. (1995) The Ancient Near East c. 3000330BC Vol 2 Routledge, London. p. 695.

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External links
Further reading World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm) (United Nations Population Division). Symptoms of The Global Demographic Decline (http://demographia.ru/eng/articles/index.html?idR=67& idArt=1815) Central Intelligence Agency (2004). CIA The World Factbook 2004 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html). URL accessed on 2005-02-13. The World in Balance (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3108_worldbal.html) Transcript of two-part PBS' Nova on World Population The Environmental Politics of Population and Overpopulation (http://berkeley.academia.edu/OzzieZehner/ Papers/911571/The_Environmental_Politics_of_Population_and_Overpopulation/) A University of California, Berkeley summary covering historical and contemporary population dynamics, forecasts, resource scarcity, population control, and environmental concerns Organizations Optimum Population Trust (http://www.optimumpopulation.org/) The Day of 6 Billion (http://www.unfpa.org/6billion/) official homepage World Population Day (http://www.unfpa.org/wpd/) United Nations: July 11 United Nations (2001). United Nations Population Information Network (http://www.un.org/popin/). URL accessed on 2005-02-13. Population Reference Bureau www.prb.org News and issues related to population (http://www.prb.org/). Berlin Institute for Population and Development "English" (http://www.berlin-institut.org/index.php?id=48). Berlin-institut.org. 2010-03-23. Statistics and maps World population statistics presented in a treemap interface (http://www.hivegroup.com/gallery/worldpop/) World Population Map, Statistical Graph (http://www.populationlabs.com/World_Population.asp) Year-by-Year World Population Estimates: 10,000 BC to AD 2007. (http://www.scottmanning.com/content/ year-by-year-world-population-estimates/) Trend of growth rate with total global population (http://base.google.com/base/a/1121639/ D3593813974111928662) United States Census Bureau (2004). Historical Estimates of World Population (http://www.census.gov/ipc/ www/worldhis.html). URL accessed on 2005-02-13. The AfriPop Project, showing African population statistics (http://www.afripop.org)

World population PopulationData.net (2005). PopulationData.net Information and maps about populations around the world (http://www.populationdata.net/). GeoHive GeoHive.com World Statistics including population and future predictions (http://www.geohive. com/). World maps, including maps of population from 1 AD to 2300 AD (http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/ worldmapper/) World countries mapped by population size (http://www.win.tue.nl/~speckman/Cartograms/WorldCarto. html) World Population from the US Census Bureau in an interactive Excel dashboard (http://charts.jorgecamoes. com/how-to-create-an-excel-dashboard/) Trendalyzer: interactive population graphs (http://www.gapminder.org/) Population clocks U.S. Census Bureau World Population Clock (http://www.census.gov/population/popclockworld.html) Population Counter (http://rumkin.com/tools/population/) World Population (http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop) World Population Counter (http://www.counttheworld.com/?counter=pop_world) Live World Population (http://opr.princeton.edu/popclock/)

22

(French) World Population Clock (2005). WorldPopClock.com World population clock (http://www. populationmondiale.com/).

Article Sources and Contributors

23

Article Sources and Contributors

World population Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=496883183 Contributors: -Majestic-, .:.Critical.:., .mau., 16@r, 1exec1, 28421u2232nfenfcenc, 336, 5 albert square, 7, A. di M., A3RO, AMK152, ASSASSINking, Aagusuab, Aarktica, Abdowiki, AbigailAbernathy, Aboyle1, Acalamari, Achim Jger, Acmoney21, Acroterion, Adam McMaster, Adam78, AdamSteckel, Adamw4, AdjustShift, Aetheling, Afasmit, Againme, Aicheung, Aitias, Al.locke, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Aleksd, Alex1996Ne, Alex7andra, AlexCovarrubias, AlexGWU, AlexNebraska, AlexR.L., Alexander Domanda, Alexbrewer, Alexkin, Alexwcovington, Alfio66, Alison, Alterego, Amalgamation, Aman2100, Amitch, Anarko, Anaxial, Andre.mostert, Andreasu, AndrewHowse, Andrwsc, Andy M. Wang, Andy Marchbanks, AngChenrui, AniRaptor2001, Anir1uph, Ankur007govil, Anomalocaris, Anomie, Anoriega, Antandrus, Apothecia, Arakunem, Aridd, Arne182, Arthur Rubin, Arthuralee, Artist Formerly Known As Whocares, Artur Buchhorn, Asher196, Ashmoo, Asimov123, Astanhope, Ataraxy22, Atatem, Atomicdor, Austein11, Avenue, Axolotl Nr.733, BanyanTree, Barneca, Barryz1, Bazingawaters, Bbik, Bcasterline, Beano, Beeblebrox, Belligero, Belsavis, Ben.connor.7o, Benc, Bender235, Bergsten, Bernardino lima, Bertie W., Betacommand, Beyond My Ken, Bgpaulus, Bibleman7777, BigT27, Bigwyrm, Biruitorul, Blaxthos, Bmitch2, Bo98, Boanj, Bob2020220, Bobathon71, Bobo159, Bobo192, Bogfjellmo, Bohdanmaks, Bokeeks, Boltengagen, Bongwarrior, Bowei Huang, Brady4mvp, Brambleclawx, Bravo-Alpha, Brekass, Brian Crawford, Brookie, Brutannica, Bryan Derksen, Bsroiaadn, Bullzeye, Burntsauce, By George, Bcherwrmlein, C.Fred, CBDunkerson, CIS, Cab88, Cabiria, Cadby Waydell Bainbrydge, Calvin 1998, Camoesjo, Cantcblue39, CapitalR, Capricorn42, CardinalDan, Cargoking, Carlosguitar, Carmichael, Carstensen, Carwil, Casito, Casmith 789, Cassowary, Cdapoz, Cephal-odd, Ceyockey, Chait2001, Challengetheodds, Chaser, Cheryl.nelson, Chill5940, Chinneeb, Chonhan, Chris 73, Chris the speller, Chris.mtl, Chuyalex, Cirt, Cjd111, Ck lostsword, Ckatz, ClamDip, Clarince63, Claycrete, ClosedEyesSeeing, Closedmouth, Cmglee, Cmichael, Comingintoland, CommonsDelinker, Comte de Maistre, Conny, Conscious, Cool123man, Cool63kall, Copysan, CorneliusStump, Corpx, Cosmic Latte, Courcelles, Cremepuff222, Crispy78, Crohnie, Cromis, Cxz111, D, DARTH SIDIOUS 2, DEC42, DJ Tricky86, DMacks, DOSGuy, Da Vynci, Daanschr, Dabomb87, Dacoutts, Daemonward, Daniel5127, DanniDK, Danntm, Dannyhoffman, DarkAudit, Darkfight, Darkflame V, Darkvindak, Darth Mike, Davidresseguie, Dawesome, Dawn Bard, Dba1990, Dbachmann, Dbfirs, Dcf3001, DeadEyeArrow, DearPrudence, Dearyunkyu, Deavenger, Decltype, Delirium, Delldot, Deltabeignet, Delusion23, Deon Steyn, Deor, Der Statistiker, DerHexer, Dia^, Diiick, Diplodoc, DirkvdM, Discospinster, Dissident, Dmytro, DocWatson42, DoctorW, Donarreiskoffer, Dondegroovily, Dontworry, Doomshifter, Dori, Doron, DoubleBlue, Dougz1, Dr.enh, DrKiernan, Driftwoodzebulin, Droll, Dude1818, Duke wellington 1815, Durova, Dwilzon, Dwrcan, E. Fokker, ENeville, EScrewy, ESkog, EamonnPKeane, Ec5618, EdGlaze, Editpop, Edknol, Edmoil, Edward, Edward321, Eeblefish, Effervescent, EhJJ, El C, El T, Eldskegg, Eleassar777, Eleland, Elemesh, Elilienstein, Elockid, ElockidAlternate, Emeraldcityserendipity, Emurph, Enchanter, Enigmaman, Enviroboy, Envirocorrector, Epbr123, Epicadam, Eppyie, Equilibrium007, Eragonrulz, Eraserhead1, Eric Kvaalen, Eric-Wester, Eric76, Errantsignal, Esaburrido, Escape Orbit, Estheroliver, Europe101, EvenBetter, Everyme, Evil saltine, Ewiniarsonca, Excirial, Extra999, EyeKnows, Eyob07, Ezzex, FFMG, Facorread, Falcon8765, Fama21, Father Goose, Favonian, Fbs. 13, Felipito1.966, Ferbcb, Ferox117, Field Marshal Montgomery, Fiftyishung, Fiftytwo thirty, Finalnight, Firstorm, Flewis, Florian Blaschke, Fluri, Foxj, Freddy S., Fredrik, Fredwerner, Frood, Funnyfarmofdoom, Future Perfect at Sunrise, Futurepopo, Fyyer, F, GabEuro, Gadfium, Gadget850, Gail, Gap9551, Garjr, Garsonjr, Gary King, GenestealerUK, GeoGreg, 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Jakezing, James xeno, JamesBWatson, Janejellyroll, Jarwulf, Jebba, Jennavecia, Jerry teps, Jfeltjack, Jh spann, JimVC3, JimWae, Jimp, Jitterro, Jivecat, Jj137, Jmanjmanjman, Jmanrazor, JocK, Johann Wolfgang, Johantheghost, John Broughton, John Stattic, JohnArmagh, JohnCub, JohnOwens, Johnleemk, Johnthescavenger, Jojhutton, Jon kare, Jonathansfox, Jonny-mt, JorgePeixoto, JorisvS, Joseph Solis in Australia, JoshG, Joshua Issac, Jossfans, Jovianeye, Jpeob, Jprg1966, Jtim2, Juansempere, Jugger90, Jujutacular, Juliancolton, Junglecat, Just James, Jwab-wiki, Kairos, Kaletamvp, Katalaveno, Katoa, Katydidit, Keenan Pepper, Keeper9000, Keraunos, Keresaspa, Kestasjk, Kevinred93, Kewp, Khazar, Kieff, Kier07, Kilon22, Kim'sfool, Kingpin13, Kinst, Kintetsubuffalo, Kmarinas86, KnowledgeOfSelf, Koglowa, Konchevnik81, Kpufferfish, Kr1st1 crazydeejay97, Krazykenny, Kristof vt, Kshitij, Kurieeto, Kuru, Kyle Cronan, Kyng, L.tak, LA2, LOL, LOLMUCHWAYNE, LaMenta3, Lambiam, Laurips, Le Anh-Huy, Le Canari, 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Mountainsdenve, Mouse is back, Moyogo, Mr Stephen, Mrdtmedia, Mrelectro, Mrmewe, Mrsdsoddities, Muntuwandi, Murgh, Muscovite99, Myanw, Mt tri , N3k74r, N5iln, NHJG, Nadiatalent, Nat32, NawlinWiki, Ncboy2010, Nealmcb, NeilN, Nentrex, Neptuniandroid, Netalarm, Neutralis, Newt08, Nick C, NickW557, Nivix, Nneonneo, No1lakersfan, Noah Salzman, Noe, Nomi887, Novasource, NpipNick, Nsaa, Nubiatech, NuclearWarfare, Nukeless, Nyttend, N, ONEder Boy, Ocaasi, Octan1990, Ohnoitsjamie, Oliverparish, Omegatron, Omgilyxd, Ordinary Person, Ottawa4ever, Oxymoron83, PFSLAKES1, Pacomartin, Parister, Patman, Patrick, Paul foord, Paul08816319433322, Pauli133, Pb30, Pcarbonn, Pdcook, Pedia123456789, Persian Poet Gal, Petrb, Pgan002, Pgecaj, Pharkie, Philip Trueman, PhilipO, Philipgamboa, Piano non troppo, Pikiwyn, Pile0nades, Pinethicket, PinkPig, Piotrek54321, Piotrus, Pizzapale, Pleasantville, Poetaris, Poingweb, Poke mass 74, Polaron, Polihale, Polymerbringer, Portia327, Preslethe, Prestonmag, Prince Paul of Yugoslavia, Profwiki122, Prolog, Promethean, Qazzzaq1, QuaziK, Quess, Quest for Truth, Quibik, Qworty, R Lowry, R'n'B, Radhaknkr, Raeky, Rajah, Ramboacdc, Ran4, RandomAct, Ranjithsutari, Rarelibra, Raslis, Ravimetre, Raymond arritt, Rbonvall, Rchaninm, Rdsmith4, Reaper Eternal, Recoil42, Reconsider the static, Reinyday, Res2216firestar, Rettetast, ReviewDude, RexNL, Reywas92, Rich Farmbrough, Richard Arthur Norton (1958- ), Richard001, Richardmayne, Richerman, Richyhamm, Rickard Vogelberg, Ricky81682, Riverbed333, Rjanag, Rjwilmsi, Rmhermen, Rmosler2100, RobertG, Robin S, Robsavoie, RoddyYoung, Roentgenium111, RonMaine, Ronhjones, Rossg21, Rprpr, Rracecarr, Rrburke, Rrsmck, Rudi argento, Ruyn, Ryajinor, Ryan Albrey, Ryan Gittins, S Chapin, SILVERicon, SJP, SMC, SMcCandlish, Salvio giuliano, Sam, Sampi, Samsoncity, Sandstein, Saravanan arun kumar, SchfiftyThree, Scottk, Scottmanning13, Scwlong, SeNeKa, SeanCastillo, Searchz, Seb823, Secret of success, Seethakathi, Senzangakhona, Setanta747, Shafkatsharif, Shanes, Shawnnicholsonca, Shengwei95, Shirik, Shirulashem, Shoeofdeath, Shredder2012, Siebrand, Signalhead, Sihmm, Simetrical, Simonross99, SiobhanHansa, Sjoffutt, Sk8element373, Skarebo, Skarl the Drummer, Skizzik, Skymnnit, Smallzee, Snarescience, Snowmanradio, Snowolf, Soelo, Solid State Survivor, Some jerk on the Internet, Somearemoreequal, Someone65, Somerdowns, Sonett72, Sorakeyes, Souldier77, SpK, SparrowsWing, Spellage, Spentready, Spesh531, Spettro9, Sphayros, Spiffy sperry, SpikeToronto, Spitfire, Spitfire8520, Spot87, SpuriousQ, Sqrt169, Squire of the Infernal Knight-Lord of Penguins, Srippon, Srushe, Starnestommy, Staszek Lem, StaticGull, Stephan Leeds, Steveprutz, Stevertigo, StewieK, Stiangk, Storm Rider, Strandedmusicians, Sunray, Superm401, Supermage, Suruena, Svick, Swpb, T, T.A.K.W.P, TBoeus, TFBCT1, Tabletop, Tafbills, Tango, Tasc, TastyCakes, Tbobboby, Tcncv, TechPurism, Teles, Tellyaddict, Terrace4, TexMurphy, Tgberfsdj43391, The Article 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