Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Herv Lebret
EPFL
Babson College Entrepreneurship Research Conference
Fort Worth, June 6-9, 2012
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
Motivation
Are serial entrepreneurs a special species, are they better?
General public and high-tech community believes so
Some publications support it
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
Background
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
More background
www.startup-book.com
2007
2010
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
FTL (1986)
Rambus (1990)
Chromatic Research(1993)
Epigram (1996)
Matrix Semiconductor(1997)
BCERC 2012
Serial data
Founders
Nb of companies Nb of
Nb of professor
founded
founders
founders
1
2'266
123
2
317
24
3
82
11
4
27
3
5
10
4
6
6
8
2
1
16
1
1
Total
2'711
167
% serial
16%
26%
Herv Lebret
Companies having
No serial founder
1 serial founder
2 serial founders
3 serial founders
4 serial founders
Total
BCERC 2012
1'739
890
83
10
5
2'727
63.8%
32.6%
3.0%
0.4%
0.2%
Basic results
Data on non-serial
1739
Data on serial
988
1st comp
378
2nd comp
399
3rd comp
124
wo 99-00
4th+ comp
87
2+ serial
610
Herv Lebret
VC-backed
Number
530
VC-backed
Number
441
VC-backed
Number
149
VC-backed
Number
185
VC-backed
Number
59
45
VC-backed
Number
48
VC-backed
Number
292
M&A
Average
Number
$33'707'000 265
M&A
Average
Number
$35'690'000 225
M&A
Average
Number
$23'319'000 98
M&A
Average
Number
$39'589'000 81
M&A
Average
Number
$51'776'000 21
$48'717'000 19
M&A
Average
Number
$39'289'000 25
M&A
Average
Number
$42'002'000 127
BCERC 2012
Millions
$10
$1
$1
$10
$100
Millions
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
Millions
$10'000
One-time
Serial 1st
Serial 2nd
$1'000
Serial 3rd
Serial 4th
$100
$10
$1
$1
$10
$100
$1'000
Millions
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
Logistic regressions
Herv Lebret
beta
-1.708
1.274
se
0.105
0.127
t
-16.333
10.044
p
0.000
0.000 ***
DFE
1516
Dev
1694
-0.210
0.000
0.105
0.000
-1.997
-2.698
0.046
0.007 ***
698
932
0.255
-0.237
0.163
0.032
1.566
-7.471
0.117
0.000 ***
1522
1767
78.132
-0.040
11.472
0.006
6.811
-6.889
0.000
0.000 ***
1522
1776
0.000
1.805
-0.412
0.177
0.150
0.039
0.002
12.003
-10.623
0.999
0.000 ***
0.000 ***
1499
1563
1.698
0.000
-0.359
0.337
0.000
0.060
5.036
-1.682
-5.958
0.000
0.093 *
0.000 ***
697
895
-0.909
-0.073
0.066
0.128
-13.757
-0.568
0.000
0.570
1538
1835
0.016
1.807
-0.410
-0.091
0.179
0.151
0.039
0.140
0.089
12.010
-10.566
-0.650
0.929
0.000 ***
0.000 ***
0.516
1498
1563
1.661
0.000
-0.360
0.158
0.339
4.901
0.000
-1.749
0.060
-5.980
0.173 2012 0.917
BCERC
0.000
0.080 *
0.000 ***
0.359
696
894
10
One-to-one comparison
Student tests
Quality from 1st to 2nd
VC amount from 1st to 2nd
Quality from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd
VC amount 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd
Quality when no VC in common
Quality when one VC in common
Quality if founder out after exit
Quality if founder out before exit
N
291
223
351
267
90
64
159
133
Mean
2.9
3.8
2.9
3.8
2.8
3.5
2.7
2.8
t-value
36.2
37.8
39.9
42.7
19.6
19.4
25.1
25.5
p-value
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
<0.01%
Table
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
Quality measure:
5: much better
4: better
3: equivalent
2: worse
1: much worse
11
beta
-1.917
0.283
se
0.313
0.081
t
-6.134
3.491
p
0.000
0.001 ***
DFE
370
Dev
427
-2.950
0.220
1.733
0.398
0.087
0.318
-7.408
2.536
5.453
0.000
0.011 **
0.000 ***
361
373
-1.107
0.261
2.291
-0.453
0.523
0.092
0.372
0.097
-2.118
2.836
6.163
-4.649
0.034
0.005 ***
0.000 ***
0.000 ***
357
349
beta
se
t
p
Vcexists beta
se
t
p
prior1 beta
se
t
p
prior5 beta
se
t
p
-2.1151
0.286
-7.3966
0
1.819 ***
0.3152
5.7709
0
-0.909 **
0.3955
-2.2981
0.0216
DFE
Dev
Herv Lebret
361
374
-2.3813
0.2897
-8.2202
0
1.75 ***
0.3191
5.4841
0
0.4517 *
0.257
1.758
0.0787
361
377
-2.2
0.301
-7.31
0
1.76 ***
0.321
5.489
0
-0.78 *
0.418
-1.87
0.061
0.258
0.273
0.943
0.346
360
373
Criteria
-1.13
0.18
-6.29
0
5
4
3
2
1
NR
-0.46
0.364
-1.27
0.204
0.656 ***
0.253
2.591
0.01
369
428 2012
BCERC
12
It is a work in progress!
Work done
Companies
2727
5669
Founders
2711
6810
445
1066
Serial founders
Herv Lebret
Work in progress
BCERC 2012
13
Backup slides
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
14
Period
100%
90%
80%
NA
70%
<2008
60%
<2001
50%
<1999
40%
<1995
30%
<1990
20%
<1985
10%
<1980
<1970
0%
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
15
Fields
100%
90%
Unknown
80%
Consumer
70%
Finance
60%
50%
Eng. Services
Other tech
40%
Internet
30%
Software
20%
Telecom/IT
Electronics
10%
Medtech
0%
Herv Lebret
Biotech
BCERC 2012
16
Herv Lebret
0-10
65%
13%
17%
6%
10-100
33%
11%
33%
22%
BCERC 2012
100-1000
25
18
18
7
68
33%
25
816
>1000
10
1
16
100-1000
37%
26%
26%
10%
>1000
37%
4%
59%
0%
27
13%
179
304
All
94
32
58
19
203
All
46%
16%
29%
9%
17
Herv Lebret
0-10
66%
10%
16%
8%
10-100
40%
12%
32%
16%
BCERC 2012
100-1000
26
18
24
8
76
43%
45
832
>1000
10
2
13
100-1000
34%
24%
32%
11%
>1000
40%
8%
52%
0%
25
14%
166
209
All
79
28
53
16
176
All
45%
16%
30%
9%
18
All companies
VC-backed
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Non serial
Criteria
Herv Lebret
Serial 1st
Serial 2nd
Serial 3rd
Serial 4th
Serial 5+
Non serial
Serial 1st
Serial 2nd
Serial 3rd
Serial 4th
Serial 5+
5
4
3
2
1
NR
BCERC 2012
19
Herv Lebret
2
21
8
1
1
11
11
53
9%
3
40
13
30
5
14
29
131
21%
4
9
4
1
6
4
12
36
6%
5
37
26
19
13
38
42
175
29%
NR Total
19
8
12
6
6
65
116
19%
2
40%
15%
2%
2%
21%
21%
3
31%
10%
23%
4%
11%
22%
4
25%
11%
3%
17%
11%
33%
5
21%
15%
11%
7%
22%
24%
NR Total
16%
26%
7%
11%
10%
13%
5%
5%
5%
13%
56%
31%
161
69
78
33
82
187
610
5
4
3
2
1
NR
BCERC 2012
20
Herv Lebret
2
11
4
1
1
9
2
28
9%
3
13
8
6
2
13
13
55
19%
2
39%
14%
4%
4%
32%
7%
3
24%
15%
11%
4%
24%
24%
4
3
3
5
4
3
18
6%
5
22
24
10
11
32
26
125
42%
NR Total
4
4
3
5
6
10
32
11%
4
17%
17%
0%
28%
22%
17%
5
18%
19%
8%
9%
26%
21%
NR Total
13%
21%
13%
17%
9%
10%
16%
8%
19%
24%
31%
20%
62
49
29
25
71
59
295
5
4
3
2
1
NR
BCERC 2012
21
Serial w. no common VC
Prior success
Serial w. common VC
Prior success
Criteria
Herv Lebret
Total
230
230
Total
65
65
1
56
30%
24%
32
16%
14%
2
36
19%
16%
24
12%
10%
3
23
12%
10%
54
27%
23%
4
21
11%
9%
14
7%
6%
5
49
26%
21%
78
39%
34%
1
6
12%
9%
5
8%
8%
2
13
25%
20%
4
7%
6%
3
6
12%
9%
1
2%
2%
4
4
8%
6%
4
7%
6%
5
22
43%
34%
47
77%
72%
NR
45
20%
28
12%
NR
14
22%
4
6%
5
4
3
2
1
NR
BCERC 2012
22
se
t
0.1513 -3.3373
0.3184 1.7096
p
0.0008
0.0873
-0.4514
Ser (0/1) -0.0646
SameVC 0.5539
0.0853 -5.2905
0.1733 -0.3728
0.3169
1.748
0
0.7093
0.0805
-0.4206
Prior1
-0.7747
Prior5
-0.0816
SameVC 0.5564
0.2266 -1.8557
0.4683 -1.6543
0.3207 -0.2545
0.3466 1.6055
0.0635
0.0981
0.7991
0.1084
-1.0278
Priorsuc 0.4492
SameVC 0.1356
0.3739
0.3379
0.0976
0.006
0.1837
0.1648
-2.749
1.3293
1.3891
DFE
Dev
811
1087
209
279
210
280
Criteria
Herv Lebret
BCERC 2012
5
4
3
2
1
NR
23
1
'Biotech'
160
-0.9931 0.0000
0.7779 0.0001
***
2
'Medtech'
140
-0.9767 0.0000
0.7642 0.0007
***
Interc
-1.7288 0.0000
Field
0.5557 0.0087
Vcexists 1.2359 0.0000
***
DFE
1510
Dev
1687
-1.7260 0.0000
0.5306 0.0232
1.2479 0.0000
**
1510
1689
Field
N=
Interc
Field
Vcexists
Biotech'
'Medtech'
'Electronics'
'Finance'
'Internet'
'Non tech services'
'Software'
'Tech Services'
'Telecom/IT'
beta
-1.6010
1.0899
0.5498
0.5344
0.3367
-0.2817
-0.3151
-1.7260
-0.3123
-0.2539
0.0730
3
4
5
6
7
'Electronics'
'Consumer'
'Finance'
'Healthcare'
'Internet'
436
145
219
36
362
-1.0327 0.0000
-0.9299 0.0000 -0.9050 0.0000 -0.9357 0.0000 -0.8906 0.0000
0.4574 0.0006 0.0291 0.9305 -0.8442 0.0293 0.4502 0.3203 -0.2333 0.1336
***
**
-1.7932 0.0000
0.4116 0.0032
1.2617 0.0000
**
1510
1685
se
0.2182
0.1410
0.3019
0.3170
0.2508
0.4607
0.2673
0.6274
0.2731
0.4685
0.2726
-1.7404 0.0000
0.5336 0.1276
1.3000 0.0000
-1.6948 0.0000
-0.1879 0.6545
1.2606 0.0000
1510
1692
t
-7.3366
7.7284
1.8210
1.6856
1.3427
-0.6115
-1.1791
-2.7509
-1.1435
-0.5418
0.2678
1510
1694
p
0.0000
0.0000
0.0686
0.0919
0.1794
0.5408
0.2384
0.0059
0.2528
0.5879
0.7889
-1.7145 0.0000
0.3954 0.4233
1.2753 0.0000
1510
1693
DFE
1507
8
'NA'
76
-0.9052 0.0000
-101.6608 1.0000
Dev
1650
***
*
*
VC exists
Biotech
Medtech
Electronics
Consumer
Finance
Internet
***
Herv Lebret
9
'Non tech services'
310
-0.8607 0.0000
-2.4227 0.0000
***
BCERC 2012
beta
-1.8635
1.0938
0.8090
0.7938
0.5966
0.7100
-0.0192
-0.0557
-1.4638
-0.0525
0.0079
0.3325
10
11
12
13
'OtherTech'
'Software'
'Tech Services'
'Telecom/IT'
104
341
121
277
-0.9158 0.0000 -0.8833 0.0000 -0.9093 0.0000 -0.9093 0.0000
-0.4979 0.1855 -0.3207 0.0543 -0.8084 0.051
-0.8084 0.0511
*
*
*
-1.7179 0.0000
0.1553 0.6900
1.2829 0.0000
-1.6586 0.0000
-0.3977 0.0219
1.2862 0.0000
**
1510
1688
1510
1694
se
0.2847
0.1413
0.3516
0.3647
0.3091
0.4386
0.4957
0.3224
0.6535
0.3274
0.5028
0.3269
t
-6.5447
7.7393
2.3010
2.1763
1.9301
1.6186
-0.0388
-0.1727
-2.2399
-0.1605
0.0158
1.0171
-1.6979 0.0000
-0.1908 0.6555
1.2649 0.0000
p
0.0000
0.0000
0.0214
0.0295
0.0536
0.1055
0.9691
0.8629
0.0251
0.8725
0.9874
0.3091
1510
1694
-1.7118 0.0000
0.0412 0.8085
1.2707 0.0000
1510
1694
DFE
1506
Dev
1648
***
**
**
*
**
24