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    Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015
    Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015
    Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015
    Ebook144 pages1 hour

    Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015

    By Asian Development Bank

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    About this ebook

    An analysis of 2015 budget outcomes and 2016 plans of ADB's Pacific member countries is the focus of this issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor, also including an analysis of opportunities and challenges from external factors.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAsian Development Bank
    Release dateDec 1, 2015
    ISBN9789292572419
    Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015

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      Book preview

      Pacific Economic Monitor December 2015 - Asian Development Bank

      Highlights

      • Larger Pacific economies experiencing fiscal crunch. Weak energy export revenues in Papua New Guinea (PNG), and delays in Fiji’s public asset sales restrain planned expenditures in the near term. Petroleum revenues are steadily declining in Timor-Leste, requiring medium-term adjustment to a sustainable fiscal path. In Fiji, PNG, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu, extreme weather conditions related to El Niño are exerting economic and fiscal pressures.

      • Windfall-financed increases in public spending for smaller economies. Continued rises in fishing license fees have boosted fiscal resources of smaller island economies, including Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, and Tuvalu. El Niño is expected to lead to transitory increases in tuna stocks, and any additional revenues will need to be managed carefully to safeguard long term fiscal sustainability.

      • Tourism trends and opportunities. Policy briefs in this issue discuss the drivers of strong demand for tourism in the Pacific and the challenges to growth (e.g., lack of infrastructure, human resources, destination development, airline links, and visa restrictions). Measures to ensure tourism develops in an inclusive and environmentally sustainable manner are also explored.

      TOURISM TO THE PACIFIC

      a Pacific Asia Tourism Association. 2015. Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2015–19. Bangkok.

      b ADB calculations using data from the World Bank and national sources.

      Asian Development Bank projections

      GDP growth

      Inflation

      e = estimate, FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, GDP = gross domestic product, p = projection.

      Note: Projections are as of November 2015 and refer to fiscal years. Regional averages of GDP growth and inflation are computed using weights derived from levels of gross national income in current US dollars following the World Bank Atlas method. Averages for the Pacific islands exclude Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste’s GDP is exclusive of the offshore petroleum industry and the contribution of the United Nations.

      Source: ADB estimates.

      Notes

      This Monitor uses year-on-year (y-o-y) percentage changes to reduce the impact of seasonality, and 3-month moving averages (m.a.) to reduce the impact of volatility in monthly data.

      Fiscal years end on 30 June for the Cook Islands, Nauru, Samoa, and Tonga; 30 September in the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau; and 31 December elsewhere.

      The Economic Setting

      International and regional developments

      2015 global economic growth disappoints

      • Expectations of faster global growth in 2015 failed to materialize due to lower-than-projected expansion in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the United States (US). The consensus global growth forecast is now at 3.1% in 2015—down from 3.7%. This is projected to strengthen to 3.6% in 2016—below the start of year forecast (4.0%). Risks to this outlook include possible oil price shocks from conflicts in Syria and financial disruptions that may be triggered by monetary tightening in the US.

      • US growth rebounded in Q2 2015 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.9%, after low growth in Q1 (0.6%) due to a severe winter in most of the country. Personal consumption expenditure made the largest contribution to Q2 growth. Consumption was boosted by rising employment, which reached its highest rate since Q2 2008. Growth in Q3 was at 2.1%, full-year growth is projected at 2.6%. The US Federal Reserve has signaled that it will begin raising interest rates in December.

      • In Japan, the economy entered recession in Q3 as exports and capital expenditure contracted. With this recession—the fifth since 2008—growth for 2015 is now expected at 0.7%.

      • Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.5% (from 1.3%) for 2015 due to stronger consumer confidence and sales in Q3. Boosted by the weak euro and low commodity prices, exports strengthened. The European Central Bank is expected to continue its accommodative monetary policy, especially with the continuing concerns about Greece’s debt and wide variation in economic performance across Eurozone countries.

      • Developing Asia’s growth is projected to slow to 5.8% in 2015 (from an earlier projection of 6.3%) on the back of moderating growth in its biggest economies, as reported in the Asian Development Outlook 2015 Update. In the PRC, growth in Q3 was 6.9%, the lowest since 2008, led by slowdowns in construction and real estate. Weaker growth in the PRC appears to have slowed growth in other Asian economies, Australia, and New Zealand. In India, the growth forecast was reduced to 7.4% from 7.8% due to weak exports, government spending, and investment as hoped-for economic reforms stalled.

      • Australia’s economy is seen to grow more slowly in 2015, with the forecast revised from 2.7% to 2.4% due to lower export revenues and falling investment—especially in the mining sector. Private consumption growth was lackluster as unemployment inched back to 6.2% in Q3 2015. The New Zealand GDP growth forecast for 2015 was adjusted downward to 2.7% from 2.9%, due to weaker export performance and lower-than-expected growth in investment and private consumption. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in September—its third rate cut this year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% in Q2 2015 from 5.5% in Q3 2014.

      • Average crude oil prices dropped to $45.7 per barrel in August—the lowest level since February 2009—before rising to $46.3 in September. Prices of food and other major commodities were also down from a year earlier and are expected to remain low until 2016. Oil prices are seen

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