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    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007
    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007
    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007
    Ebook102 pages1 hour

    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007

    By Kerry Balenthiran

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    About this ebook

    How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?
    The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone's investment returns and retirement plans.
    This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market.
    Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.
    Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherHarriman House
    Release dateMar 11, 2013
    ISBN9780857193094
    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007
    Author

    Kerry Balenthiran

    Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

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    Reviews for The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

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    • 5/5
      All back up with datas. Some may say it is a coincidence but I would closely watch how the timeline unfold. So far it seems to hit it's target. Definitely a must read to get the big picture.
    • 5/5
      As I’m reading this in 2022 for the first time, I can say that his cycle is in fact correct. No one could have predicted a pandemic in 2020, but even accounting for that the cycle still works. I would recommend retail investors read this book.

    Book preview

    The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle - Kerry Balenthiran

    Publishing details

    HARRIMAN HOUSE LTD

    3A Penns Road

    Petersfield

    Hampshire

    GU32 2EW

    GREAT BRITAIN

    Tel: +44 (0)1730 233870

    Email: enquiries@harriman-house.com

    Website: www.harriman-house.com

    First published in Great Britain in 2013

    Copyright © Harriman House Ltd

    The right of Kerry Balenthiran to be identified as Author has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

    ISBN: 9780857193094

    British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

    A CIP catalogue record for this book can be obtained from the British Library.

    All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Publisher. This book may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published without the prior written consent of the Publisher.

    No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or corporate body acting or refraining to act as a result of reading material in this book can be accepted by the Publisher or by the Author.

    About the author

    Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

    Visit Kerry Balenthiran’s author page here: www.harriman-house.com/authors/profile/kerrybalenthiran/17396

    Introduction

    The stock market first attracted my attention during the technology bubble crash in 2000. Everyone knew that there were no profits underpinning dotcom company valuations, but now it seemed that some of the revenues didn’t exist either. A number of high profile frauds, such as Enron and WorldCom, were exposed by the 2001 recession. This was of particular interest to me because my employer at the time, Arthur Andersen, appeared to be at the centre of the accounting storm and I was facing the prospect of losing my job.

    Most of my friends and colleagues were investing in the stock markets at the end of the 1990s. The fact that they knew nothing about investing didn’t bother them, whatever they bought went up in price and therefore it was an easy way to make money. As far as they were concerned they couldn’t go wrong.

    My future wife and I saved up and bought our first house instead. All of my friends told me that this wasn’t a good use of my money, house prices wouldn’t rise as they had done in the past, the 1980s was a one-off. I have always been an independent thinker and I was in love so I ignored them all and did what I felt was best.

    In hindsight we now know that the herd mentality that was prevalent at the time of the tulip mania in 1637 and the South Sea bubble of 1720 was in full flow at the end of the 1990s. I have no idea what causes it but it was there and this behaviour recurs consistently throughout history.

    In 2003 I started investing in the stock market, confident that the once in a lifetime 1929 style stock market crash was behind us and that we were entering the start of another great bull market. There was much debate about whether the subsequent rally was a bear market rally or a new bull market but this didn’t concern me at the time. The market was going up and so were my investments.

    In February 2007 HSBC issued a shock profits warning related to its US mortgage business and Moneyweek magazine was reporting that the US and UK property bubbles would burst triggering a devastating banking crisis. My understanding of the markets was still somewhat limited but I knew enough to understand that a property crash was bad for consumer spending and therefore company profits. I decided to get out of the stock market and sold all of my investments so that I could concentrate on finding out more about bear markets.

    At first I intended to study economics to understand the drivers of the wider economy, however the credit crunch had me questioning the value of mainstream thinking, particularly after I read George Soros’ book The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means. Soros’ ability to make money from the markets, while being dismissive of economic theory on the behaviour of stock prices, convinced me that I would be better off pursuing my own independent research.

    The insurance industry is acutely aware of infrequent but regular reoccurring events such as 100 year floods or 250 year earthquakes. Just because something hasn’t happened in our lifetime it doesn’t mean that it won’t, and I set about applying this same approach to stock markets. I believe that not having an investing or economic

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