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    MH370 and AF447
    MH370 and AF447
    MH370 and AF447
    Ebook73 pages1 hour

    MH370 and AF447

    By Siegfried Walther

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    About this ebook

    A trial lawyer who is also an aviation analyst first sets out to prove he has the expertise and the skill to comment on airline accidents. Most of all, he explains why, in addition to expertise, an air crash expert also requires the not-so-common ability to distinguish the wood from the trees. (Updated on 16 August 2015)

    Then, step by step, and with reference to known evidence, he reveals the true cause of the disappearance of Flight MH370.

    Finally he shows why, in January 2014, he published an article in which he rejected the conclusions set out in the 2012 BEA report into the cause of AF447. His view was later echoed in a report by five aviation experts which was released in mid 2014.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherSiegfried Walther
    Release dateMar 9, 2015
    ISBN9781311537409
    MH370 and AF447
    Author

    Siegfried Walther

    Born in Cape Town, South Africa.Practising Advocate of the High Court of South Africa specialising in civil litigation. (1999-to date)Former Attorney of the High Court. (1993-1999)Former Law Officer in the South African Defence Force during National Service. (1990)Writer, Aviation Analyst, DJ, Flight Simulator Pilot,

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      Book preview

      MH370 and AF447 - Siegfried Walther

      MH370 & AF447

      By Siegfried Walther

      Published by Siegfried Walther at Smashwords

      Text copyright © 2015 Siegfried Walther

      All Rights Reserved

      This book is licensed for your personal enjoyment only. It may not be sold

      or given away. It may not be reproduced copied or distributed for commercial or

      non-commercial purposes.

      Smashwords Edition

      Chapter 1 – A trial lawyer claiming air crash expertise?

      Similar to the Captain of MH370, I fly jet airliners on a flight simulation programme on my computer at home. My core fields of interest as an aviation analyst are commercial aviation in general and air crash investigations in particular.

      But I chose law instead of flying as a career so I am not a pilot. I am compelled to compensate for my lack of actual flying hours by using logical analysis and by discerning the relevant from the irrelevant. My experience as a trial lawyer, which requires quick-thinking and problem solving ability, ensures an approach to aviation related problems which is logical and disciplined.

      In addition, I have on occasion been required to cross-examine experts in various fields and this sometimes involves gaining a working knowledge of the expert’s area of expertise. In the process, I have learned a few things about experts and expertise.

      Firstly, people who are experts in their fields or who claim expertise in a particular field can occasionally be wrong.

      Secondly, irrespective of the field of knowledge, it is possible for most reasonably intelligent people who are passionate about any subject to study it and to acquire some expertise in that area. After all, to understand any problem or body of knowledge, the approach is always the same. One moves steadily from the known to the unknown.

      Thirdly, some experts lack certain qualities which are crucial to problem solving, such as logic, a sense of discernment, good judgement, and common sense.

      Alternatively stated, to be a good expert, one requires the not so common ability to be able to see the wood from the trees.

      I submit that the absence of this ability would undermine any legal or aviation related skill or knowledge I, or indeed any other expert, proposes to bring to the table.

      Yes, I have sixteen years of experience as a trial lawyer, but this only matters if I can persuade you that I possess that certain X factor or vision which will give you confidence that any views I express in this book are indeed correct or at least highly likely to be correct.

      If I cannot first satisfy you that I possess such qualities, then you should not bother reading anything else I may have to say.

      Why?

      Because knowledge or expertise in a field of study, even if acquired through years of experience is no guarantee that an expert will arrive at the correct conclusion. An air crash investigator is often required to determine the weight to be attached to particular pieces of evidence and do so in a manner which arrives at a conclusion which makes sense when viewed against the available evidence as a whole. Equally, this ability is required in order to recognise those situations where the available evidence is insufficient to draw any meaningful conclusion.

      Sadly, to convince you that I may possess the requisite vision, I am required to do something my mother always told me not to do.

      ‘Never blow your own trumpet,’ she used to say.

      But there are times when if you don’t blow your own trumpet, you run the risk that no-one else will.

      Fortunately, in 1980, the great trumpeter, Herb Alpert went to no.1 on the US singles chart with the hit ‘Rise’. It was an instrumental track with a disco beat and it featured Herb blowing his own trumpet.

      From then onwards, whenever I felt the need to blow my own trumpet, I defended my actions by saying that if Herb Alpert could get away with it, why couldn’t I?

      Airline disasters and their causes are serious matters, however. So if someone claims to have informed opinions or insights in regard to airline disasters, best he doesn’t attempt to establish his credentials in too modest or retiring a manner!

      Oscar Pistorius Verdict: First & correct!

      Permit me to start by referring to a non-aviation related matter.

      Many readers will recall the high profile Oscar Pistorius Criminal Trial. It played out in the Gauteng North High Court in South Africa during 2014. Pistorius was charged with the intentional murder of his former girlfriend.

      During the course of the sensational trial, the public, most of the media and certain legal experts (who apparently practice criminal law) expressed the view that the evidence clearly showed that Oscar Pistorius intended to murder his girlfriend.

      I should point out that I do not practice criminal law at present and have not done so for over fifteen years. I am a civil trial advocate.

      In addition, I should mention that I did not have the time to sit at home and watch the entire trial, which was broadcast to a worldwide television audience. Nonetheless it dawned on me that the majority of the public’s views of the case (obtained from conversations I had with lay persons, and also social media), and indeed the views of a minority of the legal experts who appeared on television shows, seemed to be erroneous or even biased.

      I was concerned that the mob mentality, media frenzy and hype had reached a stage

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